Curtain nearly drawn on Newcastle's top flight status

LAST weekend, Alan Shearer described Newcastle’s match against Middlesbrough as the biggest he had ever been involved in. Seven days on, and his players have already contrived to produce an even bigger one.

When the Magpies travel to Aston Villa on Sunday, they will be playing for their Premier League status, and given everything that relegation to the Championship entails, it is hardly an over-exaggeration to claim that the club’s entire future is on the line.

Having tried and failed to sell Newcastle as a going concern in the top-flight, heaven knows what Mike Ashley’s next move would be if he found himself in control of a fading Championship force.

Lose at Villa Park, though, and United’s 16-year stay in the Premier League will be at an end. Suddenly, after weeks of complex mathematical permutations, it is that clear cut.

The threat of the drop has been hanging over the Magpies for the majority of the season, but never has it appeared as inevitable, or dare one say it as deserved, as it does this morning.

Presented with a golden opportunity to save themselves in the wake of last week’s thrilling Tyne-Tees derby win over Boro, Newcastle contrived to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory once again.

With one game left, things are no longer in their own hands.

A draw would be good enough if Hull were to lose at home to Manchester United, and a win would secure survival if Hull failed to take all three points or, depending on goal difference, if Sunderland failed to claim two points from their final two matches against Portsmouth and Chelsea.

It is instructive, though, that that sentence contained three ‘ifs’. If Newcastle hadn’t failed to win 30 of their 37 matches this season, the endless conjecture would be irrelevant.

“I said all along I thought it would go to the last day,” said Shearer, who has now won just one of his seven matches as manager. “And that’s the case. But it’s not over yet.

“Yes, everyone is disappointed and heads are down, but we live to fight another day and we will give it a right good go next weekend and see where that takes us.

“It’s out of our hands now, and we have to better what Hull do next weekend. Whatever they do, we have to do better, but I am absolutely convinced there will still be another twist or turn.”

Perhaps he is right, but having lost ten away games already this season, it is hard to make too convincing a case for why Newcastle will not make it 11 in six days time.

While last Monday felt like a watershed moment for all the right reasons, Saturday felt like the moment at which the flame of hope died.

As ever with Newcastle there were mitigating factors, but mitigation and explanation are two entirely different things.

Bad luck and bad refereeing played their part but, as has been the case all season, bad football was the primary cause of the Magpies’ downfall.

That is not to say they should have finished the game goalless however.

If Newcastle’s obituary is to be written at the end of the season, Howard Webb’s decision to disallow Mark Viduka’s header in the second half of Saturday’s game will feature prominently in it.

At the precise moment Viduka was rising to head home Danny Guthrie’s corner, Webb was putting his whistle to his mouth to penalise Kevin Nolan for a perceived foul on goalkeeper Mark Schwarzer.

Television replays proved Nolan did nothing more than stand his ground, but having blocked off Middlesbrough defender Matthew Bates as Steven Taylor scored with another near-post header last Monday, the Magpies midfielder appeared to be paying for former sins.

Shearer said as much publicly, but was forced to concede the irony of the situation.

Having previously earned a living through television punditry, the former BBC man was dying by it as well.

“We’re bitterly disappointed with the disallowed goal,” he said.

“The first goal against Middlesbrough has been highlighted so much that the referees are looking for something that isn’t there. If anything, it was their defender that blocked the keeper.”

Newcastle’s misfortune didn’t stop there, as they also ran into Schwarzer in inspired form.

The former Boro goalkeeper made an excellent save from Obafemi Martins in the 78th minute, and produced an even better stop to deny Nicky Butt in stoppage time. On the only occasion he was beaten, he was relieved to see Martins’ first-half strike cannon against the post.

Misfortune only accounts for so much, though. Ineptitude was also in evidence, and in defence and midfield, Newcastle played like a side who were careering towards the Championship. Unless they improve both areas dramatically in the next six days, they will not survive.

Fulham’s goal stemmed from the kind of basic defensive mix-up that has plagued the Magpies all season. A horribly out-of-position Steven Taylor played Erik Nevland on-side as he galloped down the right, the Norwegian squared the ball to Diomansy Kamara, and the striker stroked home from the edge of the six-yard box.

More kamikaze defensive work was apparent on the hour mark, with Sebastien Bassong misreading a long punt from Paul Konchesky and getting on to the wrong side of Kamara as a result.

Having failed to haul the striker back by pulling his shirt, the Frenchman duly clipped his opponent’s heels to earn a straight red card.

“It was the right decision,” said Shearer, of a dismissal that rules Bassong, Newcastle’s best defender all season, out of next week’s trip to Villa Park. He failed to add, but would no doubt concur, that it was a piece of brainless defending.

There was also plenty of brainless midfield work on display, and given that Newcastle need to win on Sunday, the chronic lack of creativity that hampered their attacking efforts against Fulham is a cause of serious concern.

The four midfielders on display – Butt, Guthrie, Nolan and Jonas Gutierrez – have scored two goals between them all season.

That statistic is damning, and unless it improves next weekend, the pressure on Martins and Viduka will be immense.

As it will be, of course, on the whole of the Newcastle team. If Middlesbrough was big and Fulham was bigger, Villa is now guaranteed to the biggest of all.