EVEN though Visindar has been backed as if defeat is out of the question for this afternoon's Epsom Derby, taking a short price about Andre Fabre's Gallic raider simply doesn't make sound financial sense.
No French-trained horse has won the world-famous Group 1 Classic since Empery in 1976, so putting form aside for one moment, from a historical perspective taking odds in the vicinity of 2-1 about Visindar seems a huge risk in itself.
For my money it's the most open Derby in years and a staking plan involving each-way bets on Papal Bull, Horatio Nelson, plus Atlantic Waves, casts a far wider net compared with putting all your eggs in one decidedly dodgy French basket.
Papal Bull's price of 10-1 is really tempting in view of the fact his in-form handler, Sir Michael Stoute, has been clinically mopping up most of the Pattern races run so far this term.
There was no cribbing Papal Bull's recent Chester Vase victory either, because despite a tardy start, together with a tendency to run in snatches, Stoute's charge still clocked the fastest comparative time of the day.
The booking of Malton-based Robert Winston also adds local interest as far as our region is concerned, his cause aided by tuition on how to ride the devilishly difficult track by none other than Lester Piggott, who won the race a record nine times.
It's impossible to ignore the all-conquering partnership of Aidan O'Brien and Kieren Fallon, represented by 2,000 Guineas eighth, Horatio Nelson.
A truly monumental public gamble on Horatio Nelson during the past few days has seen the colt's odds slashed from 8s to around 9-2, proving confidence in the O'Brien camp is sky-high.
As the feature on Atlantic Waves (page 33) reveals, Mark Johnston is not over-confident about the only northern-trained horse in the line-up, but his horse could be a revelation over today's new longer trip.
By shopping around it's possible to get 20-1 about Atlantic Waves, who I believe has the tactical speed to obtain a good early position, plus the pedigree to enable him to improve 10lbs for stepping up to 12 furlongs for the first time.
The only negative about Atlantic Waves revolves around the hit-and-miss form of Johnston's stable, which remarkably means he's now no longer top-dog in North Yorkshire, a position currently firmly in the hands of Kevin Ryan.
Ryan's 49 2006 winners is miles ahead of Johnston on the 35 mark, an incredible statistic seeing as the latter has twice as many horses to go to war with.
The pair clash head-to-head with two of the leading contenders for the Listed Woodcote Stakes, Always Fruitful and Ryann's better-fancied two-year-old Sadeek (3.00).
The bookies took something of a drubbing when Sadeek did the business at the first time of asking, hammered down in the betting ring from 13-2 to 9-2 on the Knavesmire in the middle of last month.
No-one has been able to satisfactorily explain why, when a yard hits a purple patch, the effect rubs off on virtually all of its inmates, but that's what happens, which could help Ryan to a double on the day via Mutamared (3.30). Although Mutamared has never won over the minimum trip of five furlongs, he's done nothing except progress during the past 12 months, a trend quite likely to be maintained in the £75,000 Vodafone Dash.
David Barron's Rising Shadow (5.40) is notoriously hard to win with. However, having hit the upright and crossbar on his last couple of starts, maybe the back of the net beckons in the closing six-furlong Sprint Stakes.
Rising Shadow needs to be produced late and reigning champion jockey Jamie Spencer is just the man to stab the speedy five-year-old over the line where it counts most.
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article