ALL North-East derbies are important, but some are more important than others.
When Newcastle and Middlesbrough lock horns at St James’ Park this evening, they might well be competing in the most important of the lot.
With just two more games to play after this one, both sides find themselves in the Premier League relegation zone.
So forget Champions League victories or UEFA Cup comebacks, this is as big as it gets. Football thrives on hype and hyperbole, but it is not stretching things too much to claim that this evening’s fixture is the most important game to have been played on North-East soil for more than a decade.
For once, Tyne-Tees bragging rights are not the issue. This is about whether next season’s fixture list will include Liverpool or Leicester, Portsmouth or Peterborough.
“I’d go as far as saying this is the biggest match of my career,” said Newcastle manager Alan Shearer, a man who has been involved in World Cups, a European Championships semi-final and an FA Cup final. “This is the biggest without a doubt.”
“I’ve thought this would be a very important game for quite a while now,” agreed Boro boss Gareth Southgate, who was a team-mate of Shearer during Euro 96.
“And it’s definitely turned out that way.”
The permutations are endless, but with 17th-placed Hull City having lost 2-1 at home to Stoke on Saturday, the repercussions of tonight’s game are likely to be quite simple.
Win, and either Newcastle or Middlesbrough will have taken a giant step towards securing Premier League safety.
If Newcastle win, they will be out of the bottom three on goal difference for the first time since early March.
If Boro win by three, they will also be out of relegation, but with Hull seemingly in free-fall ahead of matches against Bolton and Manchester United, a victory of any description could see the Teessiders only needing to claim a point from their final two matches to survive.
Lose, however, and the outlook will be bleak. A defeat tonight will not be enough to relegate either side, but a three-point gap to safety would be a gaping chasm with just two games to play. The damage to morale and confidence would also be catastrophic.
The draw is the wildcard result, and it is telling that the last four Tyne-Tees derbies to have been staged at St James’ have all seen the points shared.
A continuation of that sequence this evening would see both sides two points from safety. Suddenly, there would be every chance of the North-East having two teams in the Championship next season.
The incentive for a win could hardly be higher, but which side is better equipped to arrest a dreadful run of form?
It is tempting to say neither given both teams’ recent performances, but it is possible to construct a case for either a Newcastle or Middlesbrough victory.
Newcastle’s players will have the support of a raucous 50,000-plus crowd, and Shearer’s squad is packed with experience. The hosts should not freeze no matter what happens.
Crucially, the Magpies also boast proven goalscorers.
The last three matches might have suggested otherwise, but in Michael Owen, Obafemi Martins and Mark Viduka, all three of whom are likely to start tonight, Newcastle can call on players who have made a career out of putting the ball in the net.
Whether the Magpies’ midfield can create any chances for them is another matter, but if the hosts get on top, you would expect someone to break the deadlock.
Given Middlesbrough are the lowest scorers in the Premier League by a distance, one goal might be enough.
Boro have other qualities, though, and while their lack of goals is a concern, they appear superior in other areas of the field.
Defensively, they are more secure than their opponents, and with Southgate likely to urge caution in the opening stages, the Teessiders will hope to suck the life out of the occasion before countering on the break.
They will be set up to exploit Newcastle’s lack of midfield and defensive pace, with the likes of Jeremie Aliadiere, Stewart Downing and Tuncay Sanli primed to break from midfield in support of Marlon King, who is likely to start as a lone striker.
Newcastle’s midfield has been weak all season, and Boro’s slick interplay could pose problems to the likes of Nicky Butt and Kevin Nolan, players who are hardly the most dynamic in the game.
Whether the visitors are capable of rounding off their attacks remains to be seen, but the Magpies will be wary of Boro’s energy and stamina.
For the neutral, it promises to be an edge-of-the-seat adventure.
For those involved in it, however, it will be fraught and frantic.
Newcastle against Middlesbrough, for a place in the Premier League. Tyne- Tees torture from first minute to last.
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