OKAY, so we know the Slovenia game was awful. And yes, the draw with Denmark was arguably even worse. Let’s been honest, aside from the occasional bright spot during the first half of the 1-0 win over Serbia, England have been dreadful throughout Euro 2024.
But who wants to read another column moaning about the make-up of the England midfield, explaining why Jude Bellingham and Phil Foden can’t play together or questioning why on earth Gareth Southgate decided to go into the tournament with his only left-back barely able to walk, let alone play a full 90 minutes?
I certainly don’t want to write one, so here instead are four reasons to be optimistic ahead of England’s entrance into the knockout stages. Normally, these type of things have five different sections, but given the way things have been so far, four will have to do…
THE DEFENCE
The caveat is clearly that England are yet to face a side who really want to attack them. Even so, conceding just one goal in the whole of the group stage is an impressive statistic, especially when you consider that was a long-range screamer from Denmark’s Morten Hjulmand.
In their opening game against Serbia, England conceded an xG of just 0.27, that rose to 0.99 against Denmark, but was back down to 0.20 against Slovenia. They are not giving away big chances, and even when Denmark began to dominate possession last Thursday, England’s defence held firm.
Any concerns over Marc Guehi’s suitability for international football have disappeared, and with Harry Maguire not in the side, England have not really looked like getting themselves into trouble playing out from the back.
A word also for the much-maligned Jordan Pickford. Tuesday’s clean sheet was the Wearsider’s 11th in tournament football, a new record for an England goalkeeper, and he will be full of confidence heading into the knockout rounds.
THE DRAW
The ITV pundits might have been fairly dismissive when presenter Mark Pougatch mentioned the vagaries of the draw prior to kick-off on Tuesday, but the fact is that it matters.
England’s route to the semi-finals of the 2018 World Cup in Russia was massively helped by the fact they ended up on the easier side of the draw, and plenty of things fell their way again as they made it to the final of the last Euros in 2021.
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The same thing is happening in Germany, with France’s surprise failure to win Group D meaning they have ended up on the same side of the draw as the hosts, Spain and Portugal. Whatever happens from now on, only one of those teams can make the final.
England, on the other hand, find themselves battling it out with surprise packages Austria, a below-par Italy, an inconsistent Netherlands and a number of lower-ranked teams as they look to navigate a passage to the final in Berlin.
Admittedly, if they play as they have for most of their opening three matches, it won’t matter who they meet in the later rounds. Still though, you’d surely rather avoid France, Germany, Spain and Portugal until the last possible moment if you can?
MAINOO/PALMER/GORDON
The only positives to emerge from the Slovenia game came in the final quarter when Kobbie Mainoo, Cole Palmer and Anthony Gordon were finally afforded some time on the pitch.
Mainoo improved things after his second-half introduction and will surely start Sunday’s last-16 game ahead of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Conor Gallagher, both of whom have flopped in their appearances so far.
Palmer and Gordon caused more threat in the final stages in Cologne than Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka have mustered for most of the opening three matches, adding the kind of energy and direct running that England have been so badly lacking.
Will Southgate be bold enough to drop Foden, Saka or Jude Bellingham in order to accommodate one or both of Palmer and Gordon in his starting side? It feels unlikely. In future, though, he’ll surely be quicker to bring them on from the bench.
GAMES SHOULD OPEN UP
In each of England’s matches so far, they’ve found themselves lining up against a side who have been happy to sit in and look to break on the counter-attack.
England have had lots of possession as a result, but they’ve been unable to do anything with it when faced with a massed defence.
As the standard of opposition increases in the knockout rounds, so should the level of adventure being displayed by the team England are up against. That will bring defensive challenges, but when it comes to trying to attack, England should benefit from playing a team that will get on the front foot, potentially leaving spaces at the back.
England haven’t been able to counter-attack at all in their opening three games because their opponents haven’t pushed high enough. Hopefully, that will change from now on.
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