NEWCASTLE UNITED’S hopes of qualifying for Europe will be determined by how they perform in the final six matches of the season, with Eddie Howe’s side currently sitting in sixth position in the table. However, they could also be heavily influenced by factors outside their control.

Last night’s results in the Champions League did not go their way – why did they matter, and what will the Magpies have to do to secure a European return next season?


WHY DID MAN CITY AND ARSENAL’S DEFEATS MATTER?

UEFA is changing the format of the Champions League next season, introducing a new Swiss-style set-up that will see four more teams enter the group stage of the competition. Two of those extra spots will go to Europe’s best-performing leagues, as determined by UEFA’s country coefficient.

Italy currently top the coefficient standings, and with Serie A teams performing strongly in this season’s Europa League, the Italian league is pretty much guaranteed five Champions League spots for next season. The final additional spot is effectively a shootout between England and Germany, with Wednesday’s results, which saw Manchester City and Arsenal both crash out of the Champions League, leaving England well behind in the coefficient rankings.

Germany’s score ahead of this evening’s Europa League and Conference League matches is 17,642 – England’s is 16.875. The gap is not insurmountable, but it would need a remarkable set of results for England to leap ahead of Germany and secure a fifth Champions League spot.


WHY DOES THIS AFFECT NEWCASTLE?

For a start, it pretty much rules out any possibility of the Magpies returning to the Champions League next season. It was always going to be a long shot, but had England received five spots in the competition, the ten-point gap currently separating Newcastle from fifth-placed Tottenham would have looked interesting given how poorly the latter played at St James’ Park last weekend.

As it is, Newcastle are 13 points adrift of fourth-placed Aston Villa with six games to go – surely too big a gap to bridge.

READ MORE:

It is not just in terms of the Champions League that Newcastle’s European hopes have been affected though. Away from the Champions League, England receive three extra European places for next season – two in the Europa League and one in the Conference League.

One of the Europa League spots is handed to the FA Cup winners, so whereas a seventh-placed finish in the league would have guaranteed Europe had England received five Champions League places, only the top six will be guaranteed a European place if only four Champions League spots are available.


SO, DO NEWCASTLE HAVE TO FINISH IN THE TOP SIX TO GET EUROPE?

Not necessarily. Assuming only the top four make the Champions League, the current qualifying criteria would see the team finishing fifth make the Europa League and the side ending up sixth heading for the Conference League. Seventh place would miss out.

That could change, though, depending on the identity of the FA Cup winners, with Manchester City, Chelsea, Manchester United and Coventry set to contest the semi-finals this weekend.


WHY DOES THE FA CUP MATTER?

Because the winners are guaranteed a Europa League spot – but they wouldn’t need to take it up if they had already qualified for Europe by alternative means.

If Manchester City win the FA Cup, they will almost certainly have qualified for the Champions League by finishing in the top four. In that scenario, the teams finishing fifth and sixth in the league would both make the Europa League, with the side finishing seventh claiming the Conference League spot.

If Coventry were to win the FA Cup, then that would be their only route to Europe. So, the league qualification criteria would revert to fifth making the Europa and sixth qualifying for the Conference League.

If either Manchester United or Chelsea were to end the season as FA Cup winners, then their finishing position in the league would be crucial. If they were to finish in the top six, any club finishing in the top seven in the league would be guaranteed a European spot of some description. If, however, Manchester United or Chelsea were cup winners but finished outside the top six, they would claim a European spot via their cup win, and you would have to finish in the top six in the league to make Europe.


WOULD IT CHANGE THINGS IF ASTON VILLA WON THE CONFERENCE LEAGUE?

No. The Conference League winners are guaranteed a spot in next season’s Europa League, but this is an extra spot rather than an addition to a country’s existing quota. So, even if Villa won the Conference League final and hadn’t already qualified for Europe via an alternative means, England would not receive an additional European place that could be distributed amongst other clubs.