World Cup 2022: Gareth Southgate will revert to type with England

The same is true of Callum Wilson, Jack Grealish and Trent Alexander-Arnold too. Gareth Southgate might have selected some of the players he has spent the last four or five years ignoring as part of his 26-man squad, but that does not mean he is about to rip up everything he has been doing during his time as England boss.

With his back to the wall after this year’s bitterly disappointing Nations League campaign, and with a number of his key players either unavailable, returning from injury or badly out of form, Southgate will kick off his latest World Cup campaign by reverting to type. And while plenty of supporters will not be particularly excited by that prospect, the England boss’ achievements at his last two major tournaments mean he has earned the right to do as he sees fit.

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If that means playing with five at the back, selecting two defensive midfielders and leaving a host of England’s attackers on the bench, so be it. It worked at the last World Cup in Russia, and enabled England to reach the final of last summer’s Euros. True, Southgate’s inherent conservatism was perhaps the reason why his side failed to respond after being pegged back by Croatia in 2018 and Italy last summer, but the former Middlesbrough manager’s achievements in getting his side to the last four of successive major tournaments should not be overlooked. Plenty of his predecessors had better sides, but did not come close to matching those feats.

Given the way in which the last Nations League campaign unravelled, there has been an understandable clamour for Southgate to throw off the shackles, but having watched his side ship four goals at home to Hungary, albeit with ten men, before conceding another three goals in their next home outing against Germany, the England boss will not have concluded that it is time to open up.

Instead, he will almost certainly double-down on the tactics that have served him so well to this point. Kyle Walker’s anticipated absence from Monday’s opening group game against Iran is something of a headache if Southgate decides to go with a back five, but rather than playing with a four, he will instead turn to either Eric Dier or Ben White to play alongside Harry Maguire, whose place remains set in stone, and John Stones in a five.

That will mean Kieran Trippier and Luke Shaw lining up as wing-backs, with Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham filling the central-midfield positions. Had Kalvin Phillips been fully fit, he might well have got the nod ahead of Bellingham, which would have made England even more defensive, but that will remain an option for the knockout games.

Harry Kane clearly starts in attack, so that leaves two attacking spots on either side of the England captain to fill. Again, Southgate will go with what he feels has worked in the past, so that might well mean Raheem Sterling retaining his place despite his less-than-impressive club form with Chelsea this season. Sterling was England’s best outfield player at the Euros, and when it comes to Southgate’s loyalty being tested, that will count for a lot.

Raheem Sterling was one of England's star performers at last summer's Euros

If Sterling starts, that only leaves one place for either Phil Foden, Bukayo Saka or Mason Mount. Mount was Southgate’s go-to man last summer, but he is someone whose position in the pecking order appears to have slipped. Foden against Saka pretty comes down to the toss of a coin, with Saka arguably more effective in a wider position and Foden more of a threat in and around the 18-yard box. A personal preference in this scenario would be for Foden, who has been in sparkling form with Manchester City in the last few weeks, although Saka’s own displays with Arsenal make an equally compelling case for his own inclusion.

Is that a side capable of breaking down an Iran line-up that will be extremely well-drilled, and whose main tactical approach will be to pack their defensive line in an attempt to frustrate the England attack and look to break on the counter-attack?

There is every chance England’s three centre-halves will find themselves up against a lone centre-forward, and as was the case at the Euros last summer, there will be a huge onus on Southgate’s wing-backs to provide their side with some width.

While England cut loose against Ukraine in the quarter-finals at the Euros, it should be remembered that their four games prior to that point had finished 1-0, 0-0, 1-0 and 2-0. In many ways, that is Southgate’s ideal scenario, and it is what he will be attempting to replicate during the group stage in Qatar.

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IF it’s not going to be England, who are the best bet to lift the World Cup? Brazil start as strong favourites, and on the strength of their attacking assets alone, they will be hard to beat. They rarely play in games in which they are seriously tested though, and there are enough question marks about their defence, particularly in the full-back positions, to look elsewhere.

There are also weaknesses in most of the major European nations, with France having suffered a series of injury setbacks, especially in midfield, and Germany, Spain and the Netherlands all lacking a world-class centre-forward.

Every World Cup has a narrative, and I fancy this year’s could revolve around Lionel Messi, who will almost certainly be making his final appearance at the tournament. Messi ended his Copa America hoodoo last year as he won his first major international trophy, and with a strong Argentinian side around him, this could be the year when he finally triumphs in the World Cup.

A dark horse? I’ll stick in South America and go with Uruguay, who can add the in-form Darwin Nunez to an attack that also features the evergreen Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani. Defensively strong and nicely balanced in terms of experience and youth, Uruguay can finish above Portugal in Group H and go deep into the competition.