WHEN the World Cup draw took place at the start of April, the general consensus was that England had fared reasonably well. The United States were one of the weakest teams in the second rank of seeds – certainly preferable to either Germany or the Netherlands, who England could have been facing – while Iran tend to qualify for the World Cup without too much fuss, without making too much of a mark once the tournament begins.
Even when Wales ended up in Group B after seeing off Ukraine in their play-off final, English hearts didn’t really miss a beat, but scratch a little deeper and the scale of the challenge facing Gareth Southgate and his players in the next couple of weeks becomes clearer. Statistically, at least, England are in the toughest of all eight groups, with Group B the only pool where all four teams sit inside the top 20 of the current FIFA World rankings. England have avoided the big guns, but they have also missed out on the minnows. As a result, the task of making the last 16 could be a fair bit tougher than many are anticipating.
The ‘Battle of Britain’ clash with Wales inevitably stands out, reprising the game between the two sides in the group stage of Euro 2016 in France when Daniel Sturridge’s stoppage-time strike secured England a 2-1 win. England would go on to lose to Iceland in their first knockout game, while a Gareth Bale-inspired Wales made it all the way to the semi-finals. Then, as now, it was dangerous to underestimate the Welsh.
Bale remains Wales’ key performer, and while the 33-year-old is undoubtedly now in the twilight of his club career, plying his trade on the opposite side of the Atlantic with Los Angeles FC, he remains a talismanic figure whenever he pulls on a dark red shirt.
Even when he was struggling for game time with Real Madrid, he was never going to miss Wales’ return to the World Cup stage after a 64-year absence that stretches all the way back to 1958, when a surprise Welsh run to the quarter-finals was only halted by a goal from a raw Brazilian teenager who went by the name of Pele. Suffice to say, he didn’t turn out to be too bad.
This time around, Wales’ chief ambition will be to make it out of the group stages, and given that their meeting with England is their third group fixture, there is every chance it will be decisive. Even without all the political baggage, that meeting on November 29 should be some occasion.
The worry, from a Welsh perspective, is that the squad has gone backwards in the six-and-a-half years since their run to the last four of the Euros, with their key players – Bale, Aaron Ramsey, Joe Allen – approaching retirement and the new crop of emerging talent not really at the same level as the players they are being asked to replace.
Defence is a worry, with Ethan Ampadu, Joe Rodon and Ben Davies expected to play as three centre-halves, while at the other end of the pitch, Kieffer Moore or Brennan Johnson will be expected to lead the line with Bale and Dan James likely to be playing on either side of them.
Wales’ squad contains players from Portsmouth, MK Dons, Swindon Town and Dundee United, but their manager, Rob Page, will be hoping a sprinkling of stardust allied to plenty of raw Welsh passion will be sufficient to see them through.
“This campaign is about history, community and Wales,” said Page, as he announced the make-up of his squad at a miners’ institute in the Rhondda valley earlier this month. “We are grateful that we have got to this stage, but then you look at the group and start to look at the teams individually. There is no disrespect to the other teams, but we have to go into the group with huge confidence that we can get out of it – and we do.”
Iran have failed to make it beyond the group stage in all five of their previous tournament appearances, although they missed out by a point in Russia four years ago despite finding themselves in a group containing both Spain and Portugal.
Their appearance at the finals continues to generate immense controversy given the febrile political climate in Iran, where the hardline conservative government continues to suppress populist protests over the treatment of women. Iran’s players have been silenced over the issue, but it will provide a volatile political backdrop to Monday’s opening group game against England.
On the pitch, Iran cruised through Asian qualifying, but the last five or six months have been much rockier with manager Dragan Skokic dismissed in July, reinstated a couple of days later, and eventually sacked again in September and replaced by former Manchester United assistant Carlos Quieroz.
Key forward Sardar Azmoun, who scored ten goals in qualifying, picked up an untimely injury with his club side, Bayer Leverkusen, and while he has been named in Iran’s World Cup squad, he is unlikely to be fully fit. While Porto’s Mehdi Taremi is another threat, Iran could struggle if Azmoun is not firing on all cylinders.
Perhaps the United States will prove a bigger threat to England, with the two sides due to meet in England’s second group game on Friday. Age-old jokes about the US’ aversion to ‘soccer’ are looking increasingly tired now, with Gregg Berhalter’s current squad boasting plenty of European-based talent.
Chelsea’s Christian Pulisic is the USA’s biggest star, but he is joined by the likes of AC Milan’s Sergino Dest, Juventus’ Weston McKinnie and Leeds United duo Brenden Aaronson and Tyler Adams in a youthful squad boasting plenty of talent.
Tim Weah, son of Liberian legend George, could be a breakout star at the age of 22, and if the US secure a positive result from their opening game against Wales, they could well provide England with their toughest examination of the group stage.
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