THE Premier League is on a two-week hiatus because of the international break, but when the action resumes at the start of next month, it will be crunch time for the clubs involved in the battle against relegation at the foot of the table.
How are things likely to play out in the remaining matches? And who is set to find themselves still playing top-flight football next season?
20 NORWICH (p29, 17pts)
When Norwich won back-to-back matches in mid-January, it looked as though the club’s new boss, Dean Smith, had a chance of engineering a remarkable survival success. Two months on, however, and the Canaries have reverted to the form they were displaying in the early months of the season.
Norwich have lost their last seven matches in all competitions, conceding at least two goals in each of those games. Their defensive frailties are both deep-rooted and seemingly unsolvable, and while Teemu Pukki remains something of a threat at the other end of the field, it is extremely hard to see how they can claw back the eight-point gap currently separating them from safety, let alone match the subsequent performances of those above them in their nine remaining games.
Given their dreadful recent record, and the fact that relegation could be confirmed well ahead of the end of the season, Norwich look a pretty safe bet to finish bottom of the pile.
Key game: Burnley (h), Apr 10
Predicted finish: 20th
19 BURNLEY (p27, 21pts)
What would you prefer at this stage of the season, points on the board or games in hand? The consensus is generally for the former, but Burnley will be hoping the latter scenario proves their salvation as they look to scramble out of the bottom three before the end of May.
Sean Dyche’s side generally find a way of keeping their heads above water, but things have been different this season, with the January departure of Chris Wood robbing them of a key attacking threat. His replacement, Wout Weghorst, has slowed after a bright start, while Maxwel Cornet has also failed to fire since returning from the Africa Cup of Nations. If neither spark back into life, it is hard to see how Burnley can survive.
Their key strength remains a solid defence, and while they find themselves four points adrift of safety, they would be out of the bottom three if they were to win their games in hand. Next month’s back-to-back matches against Everton and Norwich could well seal their fate.
Key game: Everton (h), Apr 6
Predicted finish: 18th
18 WATFORD (p29, 22pts)
The decision to parachute Roy Hodgson into Vicarage Road hasn’t really worked, although by winning 2-1 at Southampton in their final game before the international break, Watford have at least given themselves a glimmer of hope.
With a frontline of Emmanuel Dennis, Joao Pedro and Juan Hernandez, the Hornets should be capable of carrying a goalscoring threat, and there have been matches this season – most notably the 4-1 home thrashing of Manchester United – where Watford’s attack has clicked into gear.
The problem has been at the other end, and while Hodgson has tweaked a few things in the backline since being appointed at the end of January, it is hard to discern any meaningful improvement. Watford’s run-in could help them though, with Leeds, Brentford and Burnley all still to visit Vicarage Road.
Key game: Leeds (h), Apr 9
Predicted finish: 19th
17 EVERTON (p27, 25pts)
Too good to go down? It certainly didn’t look that way as Everton were being hammered by Crystal Palace in the FA Cup quarter-finals at the weekend. Frank Lampard’s side might look reasonably strong on paper, but on the pitch, Everton have been generally dreadful since they picked up ten points from their opening four games under Rafael Benitez.
The Toffees’ main problems are at the back, with a lack of pace in the backline exacerbating the issues caused by a lack of mobility at the heart of the midfield. As Lampard has rapidly discovered, Everton are much too easy to play through.
Any side boasting Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison should be a threat up front though, and while the pair have struggled with injuries all season, the international break should give them a chance to build their fitness back up. Last week’s dramatic 1-0 win over Newcastle was a crucial result, and Everton’s games in hand should just about see them safe.
Key game: Brentford (h), May 15
Predicted finish: 17th
16 LEEDS (p30, 29pts)
When Leeds went 2-0 down at Wolves on Friday night, it looked as though their Premier League status was hanging by a thread. By the time the final whistle blew on a remarkable 3-2 turnaround though, Jesse Marsch’s side were arguably just a couple of wins away from guaranteeing their safety.
It was always going to take Marsch a little while to sift through the wreckage left behind by Marcelo Bielsa, but back-to-back wins over Norwich and Wolves have transformed Leeds’ position. Patrick Bamford’s return to the side has clearly helped, and while Leeds’ squad continues to be ravaged by injury, key players including Kalvin Phillips should be back before the end of the campaign.
Leeds’ run-in looks tricky, but home games against Southampton and Brighton offer a route to safety ahead of a final-day trip to relegation rivals Brentford.
Key game: Southampton (h), Apr 2
Predicted finish: 15th
15 BRENTFORD (p30, 30pts)
For a brief moment towards the end of last month, it looked as though Brentford were going to follow the now-familiar pattern of promoted teams who start like a house on fire, only to nosedive and suffer relegation in the second half of the season.
February’s home defeat to Newcastle plunged the Bees into deep trouble, but back-to-back victories over Norwich and Burnley have transformed the position of Thomas Frank’s side. No team in the Premier League has played more games than Brentford, but while they only have eight games left, they might only need one more win to survive.
That win is unlikely to come in the next couple of games against Chelsea and West Ham, but given that they end with matches against Everton and Leeds, Brentford will be keen to avoid a fraught finish.
Key game: Watford (a), Apr 16
Predicted finish: 16th
14 NEWCASTLE (p29, 31pts)
What a difference a couple of months makes. When Newcastle failed to beat Watford at St James’ Park in mid-January, it was hard to see how they could possibly survive. Two months on, and after an eight-game unbeaten run that only stalled with narrow defeats to Chelsea and Everton, it is now hard to see Eddie Howe’s side going down.
Howe has fashioned a line-up and system that clearly suit the players at his disposal, and even if Callum Wilson and Kieran Trippier are only fit enough to return for a handful of matches, Newcastle probably only need one more victory to be safe.
With five of their remaining nine matches coming at St James’, where they have been extremely strong, the Magpies should be home and hosed long before they head to Turf Moor on the final day of the season. Indeed, with a number of the clubs immediately above them out of form, it is not inconceivable they could finish in the top half.
Key game: Crystal Palace (h), Apr 20
Predicted finish: 12th
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