Waiting at the stations

Chris Lloyd predicts what you should be looking for and when it will happen.

10pm

POLLS close. Exit polls released.

In 2005, they predicted Labour’s 64 seat majority: Labour won 355 seats, Conservatives 198, Liberal Democrats 62 and Others (largely the Scottish, Irish and Welsh parties) 31.

Compare the percentage share of the vote in the exit polls to what happened in 2005: Labour won 35.2 per cent of the vote, Conservatives 32.4 per cent and Lib Dems 22 per cent.

Because of boundary changes, there will be 650 MPs in the next parliament. Therefore, for a party to form an overall majority government, it must win 326 seats – which party will be closest to that target by the end of the night?

11pm

Sunderland South has been the first seat to announce a result since 1992. Its quickest count was 41 minutes in 2001 but, because the boundaries have been redrawn, the seat has disappeared. It will probably fall to Houghton and Sunderland South. This is one of the ten safest Labour seats in England, but the share of the vote could be telling. The notional result in 2005 was 64 per cent Labour with the other two parties each gaining 16 per cent. If the Tories increase their share and Labour plummets, Mr Cameron’s hopes will soar.

11.30pm

Sunderland Central is declared. Another new seat which should be safe Labour as they polled 51 per cent of the vote in 2005 against the Conservatives’ 25 per cent and the Lib Dems’ 15 per cent. But the Tories know last year, five of the nine council wards elected Tory councillors. They believe this is their secret success story. How close will they come?

12.45pm

In 1997 in Trimdon Labour Club, there was an enormous cheer when Tony Blair’s New Labour took Birmingham Edgbaston for the first time early in the morning. It set the landslide in motion. It is still Labour but a two per cent swing will turn it Tory. A Cameron must.

1am

The intriguing contest in Darlington is due to be called, and they should have finished weighing the votes in Durham North and North West, Easington and Sedgefield. Look out for how the Tories fare in Battersea (0.2 per cent swing required), Basildon South (1.1 per cent) and Tooting (6.1 per cent).

1.30am

big one for the Lib Dems in the North- East. If Carol Woods doesn’t overturn Roberta Blackman Woods’ 3,274 majority, then Nick Clegg is a Dutchman. Hartlepool, where the Lib Dems were second in 2005, is due, as is South Shields. Could David Miliband turn in for the night and wake up to leading a Lab/Lib- Dem coalition government?

2am

due. If things are running the Conservatives way, they should overturn the 8,000 majority bequeathed by the late Ashok Kumar in the South seat.

Redcar might be interesting. The Lib Dems are so hopeful of riding on the back of the Corus effect and overturning Vera Baird’s 12,166 majority, that they sent up Mr Clegg just days before polling. Surely there won’t be a shock in Bishop Auckland where Helen Goodman is defending a 10,047 majority? In Kirkcaldy, Mr Brown will learn if he’s defended his 18,216 majority.

Torbay is worth listening out for. It will indicate if the Lib Dems are turning the South- West yellow. And, at the other end of the country, the Tories hope to win Angus from the SNP.

2.30am

Frank Cook’s fit of pique has made North mildly interesting as, after 27 years as its MP he is standing against the official Labour candidate.

South, though, is genuinely fascinating.

It is Tory target No 123 – they need this if they are to form a majority government. It pitches Dari Taylor, a doughty street fighter with a 5,696 majority, against a young, but committed, James Wharton

3am

Blaydon is held by Dave Anderson where he has a notional 13 per cent majority over the Lib Dems – but if the 7.5 per cent swing in Tuesday’s PoliticsHome/YouGov poll published in The Northern Echo is correct, this will be a surprise defeat. Look out for the oncederided Oliver Letwin, the Tory who was hounded out of the 2005 campaign for promising huge cuts: the Lib Dems need only a 2.3 per cent swing to cut him out of Dorset West. Balance that with Morley and Outwood where Ed Balls, Mr Brown’s great out-rider, needs a 10.5 per cent swing against him to be thrown out.

This is tipped as the Portillo moment of 2010 and you must stay up for it.

You should also learn if Esther Rantzen has become an MP in Luton South and whether the diminutive Hazel Blears has withstood the expenses scandal in Salford. Mr Cameron’s Witney seat is due.

3.30am

Gordon Brown stopped in Tynemouth – Tory target No 108 – for eight minutes on Sunday as Labour feels it might defend its 5,532 majority. Look out for Brighton Pavilion where Caroline Lucas could become the first Green MP.

4am

Newcastle East is the seat of Labour’s North-East Minister Nick Brown. He’s been fighting it as a marginal for the past two or more years against a Lib Dem threat. York Outer should be true blue Tory but Cleggmania may win an MP. Will Nick Griffin become the BNP’s first MP in Barking?

5am

After Durham, this is the Lib Dems’ other realistic gain in the North-East. Richmond is due, and William Hague will be able to stop his tweeting for the night and, if there is Tory momentum, take a call from Mr Cameron offering him the post of Foreign Secretary and/or Deputy Prime Minister.

Colne Valley should also keep you from turning in: it’s a three-way contest with the Lib Dems hoping to surge from third to first.

2pm

some sleep by now, but four North-East seats – Berwick, Blyth, Hexham and Wansbeck – are to be announced, but the big interest is on Buckingham where Speaker John Bercow is head-to-head with Ukip’s Nigel Farage.If your appetite for electoral excitement remains unsatisfied, you will just have to wait for the Thirsk and Malton result until May 27. It should prove to be another seat for the Tories.