Can New Labour win next time?

In a second feature, the MP looks at what the party needs to do to avoid defeat at the next general election.

HAROLD Wilson, the great Labour Prime Minister, once said: "A week is a long time in politics." Seven weeks ago, by Harold's definition, an eternity in politics, my article in The Northern Echo, talking about the need for a "smooth and rapid succession" from Tony Blair to Gordon Brown, created a national media storm. One word in particular - "rapid" became a national story in itself. Most of the other 1,499 words were ignored.

Back then, I was identified as a lone voice, the first member of the Government - albeit a lowly Parliamentary Private Secretary - to publicly voice concerns over the party's future. But, in the last turbulent few weeks, the issue of the succession has rarely left the headlines or the thoughts of my colleagues.

I wrote the article out of concern for the party to which I have been devoted for all of my adult life. I feel immensely privileged to be a Labour Member of Parliament at a time of great electoral success which is largely due to the work of the Prime Minister.

However, with a reinvigorated Conservative Party and a series of damaging headlines, I felt it was time for us, as governing party, to look to the future and prepare for the new challenges. Once again, from the heart and out of concern for the Labour Party, I would like to reiterate the need for a regeneration of our values and policies to prepare for the next General Election.

Successive weeks have been described by the media as "Labour's worst week", from the controversy over the cash for peerages affair to the release of foreign prisoners and the behaviour of Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott. I have no doubt, from my regular meetings with constituents, that these events have taken their toll on the Government's popularity and moral authority.

For the first time since the birth of New Labour, it is considered possible by some seasoned observers that we may not win the next election. In a recent poll in The Times, a startling 65 per cent of the public expected Labour to lose.

On May 4, voters in the local elections sent their message loud and clear. I was deeply saddened by the results which saw dedicated Labour councillors lose their seats through no fault of their own.

On May 15, the Electoral Reform Society used the local election results to make estimates for the next general election. Their calculations suggest that Labour would win just 206 seats. This is less than in 1983, which was one of the lowest points in the party's history.

A similar projection was made by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University. He warned that if the results were repeated at a general election, David Cameron would be Prime Minister.

Although I am not convinced that local election results are entirely applicable to a general election, this must act as a warning. Labour must take heed of this warning and renew itself to meet the challenge of a revitalised Conservative Party and a changing electorate.

The Tories have undoubtedly overhauled their image and broadened their appeal. This has brought moderate success in the polls and local elections. However, winning a general election requires a great deal more than a PR makeover.

While they have shrewdly positioned themselves on certain issues, if we scratch beneath the surface of their rhetoric, real workable policies are thin on the ground.

Talking about everything from Bhs's line of clothes to chocolate oranges, with stunt-led populism about global warming, there is a serious lack of substance. I have great faith in the British public and by patronising the electorate and pandering superficially to every whim, the Tories are playing a dangerous game.

At some point Mr Cameron will be forced to establish a platform of policies. And though he has broadened the Conservatives' appeal, he has failed to reach to his core voters to the same extent as some of his predecessors. Therefore, he may yet have difficulty carrying both the electorate and his party when devising an election manifesto. Perhaps this is why any real policies have remained elusive.

Both William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith focused on their core supporters and immediately alienated the majority; Mr Cameron seems determined to appeal to both.

Although he is keen to distance himself from the policies of Margaret Thatcher, whom he once labelled as his political hero, some of Mr Cameron's less public actions have been more in line with her thinking than he would have us believe.

Matthew Parris, the former Tory MP, writing in the Times, describes the Tories as "Europe-hating and Pentagon-loving". He warns that Mr Cameron and four of his most senior colleagues are "to the right of Margaret Thatcher in their view of Britain's place in the world". This will come as something of a surprise to those moderates who have been attracted by the Tories new appeal.

In order to fully expose the Conservatives' lack of substance and renew itself to re-engage the electorate, Labour must overcome its preoccupation with issues of leadership.

By a "smooth and rapid" transition of power from Mr Blair to Mr Brown, I mean that the two men who worked together so effectively to lay the foundations of New Labour should again work together to secure its future. It is absolutely essential that whoever inherits Mr Blair's mantle takes over a unified party.

The speed of the transition is essentially a matter for the Prime Minister and Chancellor, but the person who leads the party into the next election needs sufficient time to make his mark on the electorate and to define his distinct vision for the future of Britain.

Since I expressed my concerns seven weeks ago, there have been positive signs that the Prime Minister and Chancellor are once again working together. This is undoubtedly pleasing.

With the polls showing Labour's popularity at its lowest since 1992, and the Conservatives at their strongest for more than a decade, the time is ripe for renewal. The Party must demonstrate through actions rather than just words - policy not rhetoric - that it has a clear vision for the future of Britain.

The electorate has grown tired of media spin and PR-saturated politics and if the Tories are determined to win that battle, we should let them. The battle we must win is that of policy.

I sincerely believe that, after nine years in government, we have a great story to tell. With unprecedented levels of investment in public services funded by economic stability, and high levels of employment with the minimum wage in place, we must not let the electorate lose sight of the fact that this Government has delivered and will continue to do so. Overhauling public services will take time, but despite recent doubts, real progress has been made.

We must focus on regaining our moral authority. The Labour Party has always existed to promote fairness, equality and social justice and we should not lose sight of these values. Despite the Government's achievements, poverty and inequality still exist and as long as they do, our work is not complete. With a well-established reputation for economic competence and a tough approach to law and order, perhaps the values of social justice and fairness will strike a chord with the electorate at the next election.

There is growing evidence that the British public have changed considerably in the last nine years. A BBC survey found a new altruistic, socially and environmentally conscious group of around 20 million adults in Britain. The research, named "Goodbye Middle England - Hello Big Britain", suggests that the outlook of middle-classes who flooded to New Labour in 1997 has changed.

'Middle England', seen as opinionated and resistant to change, has been replaced by 'Big Britain' which is dynamic, open-minded, and socially engaged. This new progressive, environmentally-conscious consensus could pave the way for an agenda focusing on equality and redistribution which would be far more popular with the electorate than the right-wing press would have us believe.

Perhaps Mr Brown can seize onto this mood and engage Big Britain by peeling back the rhetoric and addressing the issues which matter with honesty and dignity, upholding the core Labour values of social justice and fairness.

This could be the key to victory at the next election.

Part of the responsibility for Labour's ineptitude throughout the 1980s rested in its failure to realise that the electorate had changed. Let us not make the same mistake again.