Trust on trial

TONY BLAIR has been staying up until three in the morning, revising for his appearance in front of the Iraq Inquiry tomorrow. He will have to explain Britain’s motives for going to war against Iraq in 2003 and show how, once he had been unable to get the second United Nations resolution that he sought, the invasion was considered lawful.

Beyond that, Mr Blair is defending his own reputation: his enormous popularity flowed from his appeal as a “pretty straight kinda guy”, but now 23 per cent of Britons believe he should be tried as a war criminal.

For the people of County Durham, more is at stake. They knew him personally as the MP for Sedgefield, regularly returning him with huge majorities of 20,000 or more.

Tomorrow, their trust in him is also on trial.

But before he gets down to the details of his defence, Mr Blair will have to remind himself of the chronology of the fateful decisions: 2001 September 11: Mr Blair vows to stand “shoulder to shoulder” with the United States and President George Bush after the terror attacks on the Twin Towers and the Pentagon.

October 7: US and British air and missile strikes against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan begin.

2002 January 30: Mr Bush names Iraq as part of an “axis of evil”.

April 6: Mr Blair visits Mr Bush at his ranch in Crawford, Texas. They discuss Iraq. Sir Christopher Meyer, Britain’s ambassador to the US at the time, told the Iraq Inquiry that the following day Mr Blair first mentioned “regime change” in Iraq as if it were “signed in blood”

with the Americans.

April 10: Mr Blair tells the House of Commons: “Saddam Hussein’s regime is despicable. He is developing weapons of mass destruction, and we cannot leave him doing so unchecked.”

July 5: Talks between the UN and Iraq over the return of weapons inspectors break down.

There are ten UN resolutions outstanding, dating back 12 years, demanding Iraq proves it has dismantled its weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Weapons inspectors left Iraq in December 1998 because of Iraqi obstructiveness.

September 7: Mr Blair and Mr Bush meet at Camp David. Mr Blair urges the more bellicose president to seek UN backing for military action.

September 24: In his foreword to the September Dossier on Iraq, Mr Blair says it is “beyond doubt” that Saddam has continued to produce chemical and biological weapons. The dossier, compiled by the Joint Intelligence Committee, says Saddam has WMD which can be deployed within 45 minutes. The Sun screams: “Brits 45 Mins from Doom”, but Sir David Omand, Mr Blair’s security co-ordinator, has told the Iraq Inquiry this month this claim is “a bit of local colour”, and there was a “natural queasiness”

among intelligence experts about the dossier.

October: 50,000 more US servicemen move to the Gulf.

November 8: The UN Security Council unanimously passes resolution 1441 declaring Iraq to be in “material breach” of its obligations to disarm.

It gives Iraq “a final opportunity to comply”

and warns it of “serious consequences” if it fails. The resolution doesn’t spell out what the consequences will be but France refuses to support 1441 if it allows military action. Britain and the US say the resolution does not include “automaticity” – an automatic move to war if Iraq fails to comply – although the US hints that one of the earlier contravened resolutions, 678, does justify war.

November 18: Weapons inspectors, led by Hans Blix, return to Baghdad.

December 7: Iraq presents the UN with a 12,000- page dossier claiming that Iraq is empty of WMD. Dismissed as a stunt by Mr Bush.

2003 January: Britain begins assembling a 30,000- strong land force in the Gulf, backed up by aircraft carriers and 5,000 sailors. The US has 100,000 troops there.

February 3: Alastair Campbell publishes a second British Government dossier on Iraq’s WMD. This “dodgy” dossier is lifted, complete with typographical errors, from internet articles.

February 15: Up to 1.5 million protest in London against a war.

March 7: After months of frustration, Blix reports to the UN about some Iraqi co-operation but also continued evasiveness. He questions the whereabouts of large quantities of anthrax and 1,000 tonnes of VX (a lethal nerve agent) which Iraq is known to once have. Attorney General Lord Goldsmith advises the British Cabinet. He says the meaning of 1441 is unclear and he is pessimistic about the legality of any invasion. He concludes: “I remain of the opinion that the safest legal course would be to secure the adoption of a further resolution to authorise the use of force.” This has been his consistent view for more than eight months.

March 10: French president Jacques Chirac says France, with Russian and German support, will veto any resolution authorizing military action, destroying Mr Blair’s “second resolution”

strategy and paralyzing the UN.

March 17: The deadline set by 1441 for Iraq to demonstrate that it has disarmed passes.

Britain, the US and Spain say they will invade.

Lord Goldsmith, having visited his counterparts in America, advises the British Cabinet that there is a “reasonable case” that it was “lawful to proceed” with an invasion under 1441. The Cabinet votes to invade. Robin Cook resigns as Leader of the House.

March 18: Commons votes by 412 to 149 in favour of military action after Mr Blair signals he will quit if defeated. Elizabeth Wilmshurst resigns as a Foreign Office lawyer, although her boss, Sir Michael Wood, stays. Both told the Iraq Inquiry on Tuesday that the Foreign Office legal team believed that without a second resolution, war was “contrary to international law”. Ms Wilmshurst said an invasion was “a crime of aggression”.

March 20: US launches air strikes on Baghdad.

April 6: British forces enter Basra, Iraq’s second city.

April 9: Helped by American troops, cheering Iraqis pull down a statue of Saddam in central Baghdad.

May 1: Mr Bush declares victory in Iraq.

May 29: BBC Radio 4’s Today programme reports that Downing Street “sexed up” the Iraq dossier.

July 18: Three days after telling the Commons that he is not the source of the “sexed up” story, Government scientist Dr David Kelly is found dead in woodland close to his home. He had taken his own life. The Hutton Inquiry begins, as pressure grows for greater understanding of a war that cost the lives of 179 British soldiers and countless thousands of Iraqi civilians but uncovered no weapons of mass destruction.

TOMORROW: The questions Mr Blair must answer.