An impossible dream?

Chris Lloyd looks at what the 44th President of the US has to celebrate

REMEMBER May 1, 1997? The entire British nation seemed to have a smile on its face as power passed from the old, tired Tories to the fresh, youthful New Labour.

Today, nearly a quarter of British people think Tony Blair, who was so bright and hopeful 13 years ago, should face a war crimes trial.

How times change.

Remember January 20, 2009? The entire globe seemed to have an enormous grin on its face, with tears of joy running down its cheeks, as power shifted from the backward-looking warmonger, George W Bush, to the allembracing, peace-loving Barack Obama.

Exactly a year on, how have times changed?

His approval rating has plummet 20 per cent, and his policies have laden America with $9 trillion of debt for a decade. His opponents have been loud in their denunciation – the entire Fox News Channel seems to be out to destroy him in a way that makes Britain’s right-wing tabloids look like fence-sitters.

His most fervent supporters – the original Obamaniacs – are no happier. He hasn’t shut the Guantanamo Bay prison camp, his healthcare reform is a mish-mash and, even though he won the Nobel Peace Prize, he has sent 30,000 extra troops to fight in Afghanistan.

So we’ll have to look for the truth somewhere in the middle...

THE ECONOMY
BARACK OBAMA did not erase the pain of global recession, but he did ease it. He, like Gordon Brown, bailed out banks. Then he went one stage further, rescuing General Motors and Chrysler.

His one trillion dollar stimulus has stabilised the economy, but unemployment is still at ten per cent and America is likely to be deep in debt for a decade.

He, like our politicians, is coy about the massive tax rises and public spending cuts that must surely come, but he has announced a $90bn tax on the banks so that the state will recoup some of its bailout while the bankers pocket their bonuses.

GUANTANAMO BAY
OBAMA’S first announcement was that, within a year, he would close the prison camp where suspects were held without trial, damaging America’s reputation. He also denounced the “enhanced interrogation”

techniques, known more commonly as torture, that they were subjected to.

The announcement was a PR triumph. It contributed to his Nobel Peace Prize and America is again the most admired country in the world, having slipped to seventh in 2008 under Bush.

Yet, the camp is still open, as Obama struggles with the practicalities of handling 200 potentially dangerous inmates. Some will be tried, some will be repatriated, and the rest…?

THE GULF
OBAMA has, more or less, ended the war in Iraq. Nearly every US soldier will be out by 2011.

Yet, he has sent a 30,000-troop surge into Afghanistan. To dampen the criticism, he said that he would start withdrawing in the summer of 2011 – but how can he possibly predict when the war will be won and when a notoriously unstable place like Afghanistan will be secure? This date, a hostage to fortune, will bite him during the next presidential elections.

In Pakistan, he has been surprisingly bellicose, authorising an average of one missile strike a week from the unmanned drones, resulting in the deaths of 500 “militants”.

Yet the Muslim world still prefers him to his predecessor. He still manages to sound as if he’s talking to them rather than haranguing them.

Iran will be a measure of his success. It persists in developing nuclear weapons, but Obama has not – yet – issued Bushlike threats. Neither has he raised the hopes of the rebels in Tehran. Instead, he has tried to exert pressure through Russia, which owes him a favour after he dropped the spacebased missile shield.

If Iran cannot be brought to heel in this way, Obama’s successor will be faced with a nuclear-armed enemy.

HEALTHCARE
TONY BLAIR could have swept anything through Parliament with his massive majority in 1997, but the President of the US, no matter how popular he is, has to work with the House of Representatives and the Senate. Consequently, Obama’s flagship healthcare proposals have endured a difficult journey. Now, though, every American will be obliged to have health insurance, and the poorest will have their premiums subsidised.

This will provide an extra 30 million people with healthcare and the insurance companies are forbidden from turning anyone away. It is a massive achievement.

Yet, there will be no state-run insurance company and taxes will have to rise to pay for it, possibly pushing the country into a double dip recession.

And no one knows if it will work.

CLIMATE CHANGE
OBAMA just being in the White House changed America’s outlook from the denying days of the Bush regime. Yet the Copenhagen summit was a failure, although Obama did go the extra mile and cook up a political compromise with the Chinese. Even he called this “not enough”, but will he be brave enough in the next year to have another go?

BARACK OBAMA could never live up to the world’s unfeasibly high expectations in a time of a deep recession.

His charisma, and skin colour, has changed America’s standing in the world for the better, and at home on issues such as abortion, stem cell research and homosexuals in the military, his natural liberalism has ended the ultra-conservatism of the Bush era.

After the awe-inspiring oratory of his campaign, he has had to govern pragmatically. He has done solidly okay, as a 50 per cent approval rating suggests, but the years to come will play a greater importance in creating his reputation.