Costing the earth

CLIMATE change is one of the biggest threats facing the planet with warming temperatures causing dramatic changes to weather patterns, raising sea levels and triggering mass starvation. But to what extent is it happening – and why is there still a debate about its ramifications? The Northern Echo set out to answer some of the questions.

Is the climate really changing and if so, in what way? And if it is changing, is Man causing that change or exacerbating it?

MOST – but not all – people would agree that all the evidence points to some form of warming of our planet.

Gareth Kane, of Newcastle-based environmental consultants Terra Firma, says: “Somewhere between 97 and 99 per cent of qualified climatologists believe that Man’s carbon emissions are producing a long-term effect on the world’s climate. Since the Industrial Revolution, we’ve been pumping greenhouse gases out into the atmosphere and there has been a clear rise in average global temperatures to the present day.”

Matthew Hunt, of environmental consultants Royal Haskoning, which works extensively with public and private sector clients in the North-East and North Yorkshire, says: “Globally, there are no absolute answers – scientists will never say that anything is certain to happen, but in the case of climate change they are saying it is very likely. In the north of the UK, that means the future will be warmer, there will be wetter winters, drier summers and sea levels will rise. The weather will also be more extreme.”

If climate change is a given, why is there still a debate?

HUNT, whose company advises clients on dealing with climate change, says: “There is a debate going on but it is not about whether or not climate change is happening, it is whether or not it will be as bad as some scientists are saying or whether it will be a lot worse. The discussion is also about how we address what is happening.

“I think the reason there has been a debate about whether or not climate change is happening is that there is still a sense of surprise that a single species such as Man can affect something as vast as Planet Earth.

“Those who deny climate change are adopting the ostrich approach – it is easier to bury your head in the sand and pretend that it is not as bad as everyone says.”

Robert Kryiakides, London-based founder/ chief executive of Genersys plc, which sells thermal solar systems, used for water and space heating, says: “Those who profess their disbelief in climate change in public media reasonably point out that scientists have been wrong in the past in their predictions. They have been right to be sceptical in the past, but climate change science has now reached a level of sophistication comparable to the level of knowledge about the shape of the earth 400 years ago, when people could not prove beyond any doubt that the earth was a sphere and the ‘flat earthers’ could muster arguments very similar to those deployed against climate change.”

Can we rely on computer modelling given that scientists on both sides of the debate have had to make revisions in the past?

HUNT says: “Scientists model change and evidence, and our increasing understanding of how the Earth and the climate and global system works enables them to refine the models so that they make better and better projections.

However, as the models are refined the actual levels of future change that are projected, such as actual temperatures, actual sea-level heights etc, must alter as well. This isn’t backtracking, more homing in closer and closer to a more precise and accurate projection.”

If the planet is warming, how come we still have cold winters like the one just gone?

“MANY people mix up ‘weather’ and ‘climate’.

Climate is the long-term pattern of weather, usually measured over 30 years,” says Kane.

“Carbon emissions actually have quite a weak effect on short-term weather – winter is always colder than summer and last year was cooler than, say, 2005. But the effect is very persistent, so over decades the effect on climate is significant, so even a relatively cold year like 2008 is warmer than any year in history before 2000.

This short-term weather ‘noise’ causes a lot of confusion and allows the anti-climate change industry to pick and choose data that suits them.”

How come the Planet’s climate changed repeatedly before Man appeared, eg Ice Ages and the age of the dinosaurs? Are we actually seeing the natural cycle of the Planet?

“THE Planet is in a cycle and is warming, but the Planet existed in balance – we have thrown it out of balance,” says Hunt. “It is true we are heading towards an Ice Age but the timescale for that is hundreds and thousands of years.

Yet even with that happening, we are still able to make the planet warm up.”

Can we win the battle against climate change and, if so, how?

“WHATEVER we do, the climate will continue warming until 2050,” says Hunt. “But if we do nothing now, then we will get to 2050 and even if we react to what is happening then it will be another 50 years before we can change it. One thing is certain: if we do nothing, the impact will become more and more severe over the next 30 years and beyond.”

“While emissions from the UK have dropped slightly, our carbon footprint is still rising,”

adds Kane. “We need to stop worrying about minor items like plastic bags and phone chargers left plugged in and start insulating our houses, decarbonising our electricity supply and switching to lower carbon forms of transport.

We need to make better use of wasted energy from power stations and start making recycling of all materials the norm. Low carbon technologies, such as second generation biofuels which do not compete with food, need rapid investment. We have most of the technologies we need, but we need a revolution in our ways of life to implement them properly.”

What are the benefits of taking action to slow down climate change?

“A LOW carbon world would be a brilliant place to live,” says Kane. “Cities would be cleaner, greener and healthier, filled with pedestrians and cyclists rather than choked by cars, and there would be less smog and other pollution. Globally, countries would be less dependent on each other for energy, leading to fewer conflicts and aggression.”

■ Climate Change Minister Joan Ruddock writes exclusively for Northern Eco,in today’s 32-page supplement marking United Nations World Environment Day 2009.