I AM not a betting man. But, if I were, my money would be on the Liberal Democrats having a different leader by the next general election.

On the eve of the Lib Dem conference, it is increasingly difficult to see how Nick Clegg can still be in charge by the time his party next meets the voters, presumably in 2015 Halfway through the parliament, the Deputy Prime Minister remains extraordinarily unpopular. A poll, this week, gave him what’s laughingly called an “approval rating” of minus 52 per cent.

It means 18 months of fighting rough for Lib Dem wins in the Government – dumping the early blunder of the Rose Garden love-in with the Tories – has failed to drag the party off the floor.

Worse, there is now a credible rival to Mr Clegg, given the rise and rise of Vince Cable, who has made known he still fancies the top job.

Many Lib Dem voters who have deserted to Labour in disgust at Mr Clegg’s leadership would come back to the Lib Dems if Mr Cable was in charge, polls have suggested.

In contrast, at least half the party’s 57 MPs would be wiped out on current performance, a fact certain to concentrate the mind of any politician facing the loss of their livelihood.

This week, one Lib Dem MP – Southport’s John Pugh – told me the Lib Dems will decide Mr Clegg’s future “a year from now” – speculating that he is too “damaged” to stay in charge.

It is surely correct that as the party faithful gather in Brighton, for the annual conference, there is no immediate threat to the leader.

No doubt, Mr Clegg will satisfy by vowing to fight even harder for Lib Dem priorities – on tax cuts for the low-paid, for green issues and for a wealth tax.

Within last year’s conference bubble, the scale of denial about Lib Dem prospects and lack of power within the Government was breathtaking.

This year may well be the same.

Regardless, the huge problem remains that, at the grassroots, the party remains a centre-left one – led by a man cemented in the public mind as helping to lead a right-wing government.

At the next election, the Lib Dems will need to plausibly claim a policy of equidistance between the parties – able to do a deal with either the Conservatives or Labour.

How can Mr Clegg, the Rose Garden pal of David Cameron, pull that off?

And what damage will that do to the Lib Dems – particularly in the North-East – if he cannot?

Mr Clegg has already suggested it is pointless to even try to win back left-leaning voters, telling an interviewer: “We have lost them and they are not going to come back.”

The Lib Dem leader will be cheered when he stands up to address the conference in in Brighton – but, I suspect, the clock is ticking.

SAMANTHA CAMERON’S excellent music tastes continue to impress – and intrigue.

The Prime Minister’s wife, formerly a mate of trip-hop star Tricky, revealed herself to be a fan of 212, by rapper Azealia Banks.

The title is a reference to the area code 212 in Harlem where Banks grew up.

It was one of the best tracks relased last year – as well as one of the most sexually explicit.