THIS column has been an election-free zone for the past few weeks. But, today of all days, that’s changing. As I write these words, people are still going to the polls. When you read them, the election may still be in the balance. But I am going to make a prediction anyway.

It is that the Conservatives will get a majority.

That’s not sticking my neck out too far, I know. But I will go further. I think that David Cameron will confound the polls predicting a hung parliament and win sufficient seats to form a government.

He will do that as I have never known an election in which people’s desire for change has been so dominant. It has outstripped even their disillusionment with politicians – and that is saying something. That is why I think they will ensure the election – their election – has a clear winner.

It will be a good thing, too. Parties that stay in power too long get arrogant and complacent.

They lose the drive that made them winners, the vision that won over voters. Their leaders spend more time clinging to power than exercising it for the nation’s benefit.

In the next week or two we will see a new generation emerge, in both Labour and Conservative ranks. I think most people will regard that as a good thing.

So what will Mr Cameron have to look forward to? The keys to Number Ten come complete with a recession, a war, a financial sector that still thinks it’s the real boss of the country, a manufacturing base that has experienced two decades of malign neglect and a public sector facing unprecedented pressures.

He faces a public that still feels badly let down by the political class.

Like all incoming premiers he faces the country’s alternative government – the bureaucrats who provide a thousand reasons for delay and compromise, who ensure every administration ends up a sort of respectable failure, not really pleasing anyone, but doling out equal measures of disappointment.

To overcome these problems he will have to base his decisions on sound judgement and fact – get the detail right. He’ll also have to delegate – treat his team like allies not rivals.

If he tries to retain power over everything he’ll control nothing.

But he will have to remember that government is about the big picture, too. People want an efficient economy. They want decent services for their family and community, good schools and hospitals and an effective police force. But they want something more.

They want a say in how those organisations are run, not because they are awkward or interfering, but because they want to make a contribution. He should listen to those people every time he starts to feel he knows best – because an awful lot of the time they are right. If he does all this he has a chance of succeeding – a chance, of course, not a guarantee.

We live in a world where a small volcano in a far-off country can cause global chaos; where human error can trigger ecological disaster. Sheer chance can leave the most carefully constructed plans in ruins. That is a humbling thought all politicians should keep in mind.

So now I’ll put away the crystal ball for another four or five years, conscious of the fact that when you read these words, you’ll either be marvelling at my foresight, or having a good laugh at how wrong I was.

If it’s the latter, don’t worry, I will join in the joke. Because the other thing politicians should never lose is their ability to have a laugh – chiefly at themselves.