THE fresh air on the Brighton seafront cannot hide the smell of dread and dismay as the Liberal Democrats slide in the polls under Sir Menzies Campbell.

But the Lib Dem MPs and footsoldiers who still swear allegiance to their struggling leader are right not to press the panic button - because, in a bizarre way, their slide may not matter.

A week at the Lib Dem conference make two things crystal clear: that the grumbling and groaning about Sir Menzies is growing, but he will still be leader at the next election.

Several factors combine to explain this, the first being the fear of looking ridiculous by removing a second leader less than two years after Charles Kennedy was forced out.

After all, reluctant Lib Dem MPs had a reason to strike against Mr Kennedy - his inability to stay off the sauce - but have no such justification for ousting his sober replacement.

Just as important, with an election campaign possibly just seven months away, it would be disastrous to appear a divided and chaotic party. Indeed, the repeated references this week to a possible poll next month - surely unthinkable after panicking Northern Rock customers emptied their accounts - appear a clear attempt to shore up Sir Menzies.

Third, whatever the 66-year-old's weaknesses as a performer, most Lib Dem MPs are delighted by the much-improved party organisation since the dilatory days of chatshow Charlie.

The Lib Dems also have some radical and well-worked out policies, particularly on the environment, that must make their 15 per cent poll ratings seem so unfair.

But 15 per cent they are in many polls, leaving many southern Lib Dem MPs looking nervously over their shoulders at the Conservatives, whose revival will surely claim their seats.

However, whether the Lib Dems drop from 63 seats to, perhaps, 53 at the next election is far less important than the very real and tantalising prospect of a hung parliament. After all, in 2005, the Lib Dems' share of the vote went up to 23 per cent, but it was the Tories who reaped the benefit of extra seats, because of the unfairness of first-past-the-post.

Next time round Sir Menzies' party may lose votes and a few seats, but end up with a better result if they hold the balance of power. It would be then that Sir Menzies could extract his price for keeping Gordon Brown in No 10 - truly radical policies to tackle the climate crisis, or axeing ID cards, or the holy grail of voting reform.

It is far better to stick with their leader. For the Lib Dems, cutting off the head would be shooting themselves in the foot.

Undoubtedly the best story in Brighton is the astonishing tale of teenage yobbery - I mean youthful indiscretion - revealed by wannabee leader Nick Clegg.

The heir apparent told an open-mouthed audience how, as a drunken 16-year-old on a German exchange trip, he helped torch a prized collection of cacti.

Mr Clegg found himself doing gardening as a community punishment and suffered the indignity of his face plastered across the front page of the local newspaper. He then spent the summer touring British garden centres in search of replacement cacti, which he shipped to Germany.

Mr Clegg, in case you didn't know, is the Liberal Democrat spokesman on crime.