ON September 30 1938, Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain stood outside Number Ten, waved a piece of paper and spoke to the nation: “My good friends, for the second time, a British Prime Minister has returned from Germany bringing peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time. We thank you from the bottom of our hearts. Go home and get a nice quiet sleep.”

Eleven months later we were engulfed in the most destructive war in history. In Munich, Adolph Hitler had made a complete fool of him, inviting him to inspect the guard of honour. Chamberlain remarked on the skull and crossbones which the soldiers wore on their helmets, thinking the men were pantomime pirates. Actually, they were members of the notorious Death’s Head brigade of the SS.

I thought of this tragic farce this week when I heard Donald Tusk, European Council president say: “Our agreement with the government of Turkey regarding the migrant crisis is a breakthrough and sends the very clear message that the days of irregular migration are over.”

Yes, and the moon really is a nice piece of cheddar.

What is the EU’s agreement with Turkey? Briefly, in return for a whopping great bribe of £2.1bn, Turkey has promised to take the lion’s share of the migrants from Syria, Iraq, Iran and Pakistan presently overwhelming Greece – 720,000 arriving in the first two months of 2016. As part of the deal, Turkey is also negotiating visa-free travel for Turks throughout Europe and its application for membership of the EU is to be speeded up. Leaving aside the very big question of whether the EU is a good thing or a bad thing, do we really wish to make a place for a tyranny such as Turkey at the centre of government in Europe?

Turkey is a police state. Thousands of its citizens – including scores of journalists – are in prison without trial. Last week Zaman, one of its main newspapers, was invaded by the police, its staff tear-gassed and the paper closed down, later to be re-opened but with its news and editorials written by the Turkish secret service. And, following this great betrayal – the EU’s Munich-style deal with Turkey – Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan described the agreement as “An historic day in Turkey’s relations with the EU.” Indeed it is – in the sense that a sell-out marks “an historic day”.

It is precisely at this point in the corrupt and dodgy dealing, the deceitful pretence that all is right with the world, that we should expect to hear from Jean Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission. Indeed, he does not disappoint. Here he comes with a mouthful of lies: “The agreement with Turkey will not lead to a situation where the EU forgets about the main differences and divergences we have with Turkey, including human rights and freedom of the press.”

But the signing of the agreement means we have forgotten about these things already. Even if we were prepared to hold our nose and swallow this squalid deal, what evidence is there for thinking that Turkey would abide by it? Erdogan does not have a reliable CV in the matter of keeping his promises. He might well begin by looking as if he will honour the agreement but give him a few more months – let the number of migrants increase even more catastrophically as the summer arrives – and Mr Erdogan will be back banging the table and asking for a bigger bribe. And of course the EU – of which, I’m sorry to say, the UK is still a part – will pay up.