ARE you ready for the Government of this country changing hands without a General Election, without you – the voters – getting a say in the matter?
It sounds extraordinary, but the more I think about the fall-out from the likely muddled result in May, the more I believe Britain is heading for such a seemingly unthinkable switch.
Let me explain. First, it seems certain that the election will fail to produce a clear winner, as both the Conservatives and Labour fail to break out from their core votes.
Second, it’s almost as certain there will be no repeat of the rose garden love-in of 2010 – where two parties forget their differences and form a stable Coalition.
We know that, given the buyers’ remorse – particularly on the Tory backbenchers – all party leaders will struggle to convince their MPs and supporters that immediate compromise is the way forward.
If this true for David Cameron, it is perhaps even more so for Ed Miliband – given the hatred of both the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish nationalists on the Labour side.
Furthermore, two parties may not boast enough MPs to form a stable Coalition, requiring talks with a third party and further daunting hurdles.
That suggests, thirdly, that a minority Government is the likely way forward and both the Conservatives and Labour will be war-gaming how they might give that a go.
But the lesson of the last time a Prime Minister tried that – Harold Wilson, in 1974 – is that a minority Government cannot be kept going for more than a short period.
On BBC Radio, I heard Shirley Williams, a Cabinet minister four decades ago, remembering the sheer exhaustion of trying to run a department, keep a party together and win knife-edge votes.
Furthermore, the wily Wilson had a record of cunningly outwitting opponents which neither Mr Cameron nor Mr Miliband – given their many stumbles – are likely to emulate.
So, once this unstable minority Government collapses, the country will face a second General Election, as in 1974, right? No, wrong.
The big difference is the existence of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, that little-understood piece of legislation that blocks off the second-election route.
Ok, it’s not impossible to have a second poll – but it would take a two-thirds majority vote in the Commons to achieve it, which seems unlikely to say the least.
The other possible trigger is losing a vote of confidence. However, first there is a 14-day “cooling off” period to give other parties the chance to form a Government.
Now, imagine Mr Cameron has clung on for some months, as a minority leader, before being forced to resign. If you’re Ed Miliband, do you agree to a second election – or have a go yourself?
There’s only one answer, surely? Mr Miliband would have a go himself – as would a new Tory leader, in reverse circumstances – and claim the right to pass a Queen’s Speech.
He may, or may not, succeed, but would, nevertheless, be summoned to the Palace, kiss the Queen’s hand and walk through that famous No.10 door before he got to fail.
In this new multi-party reality, we may have to get used to a different Prime Minister taking office – without the bother of a fresh election.
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