THE Oldham and Saddleworth by-election comes too early into the coalition Government’s programme for us to read too much into the result.
But, strangely, it could be argued that all three main parties can draw some strength from the figures.
For Labour, Ed Miliband is not the “nothing man” of David Cameron’s dismissive comment. There are concerns about Mr Miliband’s lack of early impact, but Labour’s share of the vote soared: 32 per cent up to 42 per cent.
As the by-election was caused by the lies of the former Labour MP Phil Woolas, this was a potentially awkward hurdle for Mr Miliband, but he has negotiated it without embarrassment.
He will be heartened.
So too will Nick Clegg. The Lib Dems have been pilloried in recent weeks for a succession of U-turns on everything from tuition fees to rail fares. Yet this was not the meltdown many predicted: their share of the vote even rose, marginally, from 31.6 per cent to 31.9 per cent.
Deeper analysis may show that disillusioned Lib Dems switched to Labour, and tactical Conservatives deserted their party to prop up the Lib Dems.
This caused the Conservative vote to collapse – down from 26 per cent to 12.8 per cent. Normally, this would be regarded as disastrous, particularly as it was accompanied by some illconceived words from co-chairman Baroness Warsi, criticising right-wing Tories.
However, more than a decent showing in a seat he was never going to win, Mr Cameron needed Mr Clegg to avoid humiliation. If the coalition is going to stick together, the Lib Dems cannot become whipping boys, and in Oldham and Saddleworth they did not.
Again the Coalition surprises us with its durability, but every poll – be it by-election or May’s locals – will have the dramatic tension between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems as its backdrop.
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