THE Stock Market hit 5500 on the FTSE last week, a full ten per cent higher than the same time last year. House prices continue to rise, according to the Halifax, ignored of course by the BBC, as it might construe good news.
England has made a good start to qualifying for the Uefa Euro 2012 finals.
Jenson Button is still chasing Lewis Hamilton to retain his Formula 1 championship title. Does it get much better? That is the conundrum facing investors now.
The latest sets of economic statistics have been encouraging, or at least not as bad as had been feared. Growth figures are way above forecasts, leading to prospects of continued increasing corporate profitability. Is this point factored into the markets already? That is difficult to answer. The pessimists would say that it is, but these are the same people that shouted that there would be no recovery until late this year or indeed next year. These are also the self same people who denied the recovery last year and predicted a double-dip recession, and continue to do so now. One has to ask, should their opinion count for much?
Last year, in fact, proved to be the best year for stock market returns in decades, particularly since early March last year, and this year has held on to those gains.
At this time of year, I traditionally review the old adage of “Sell in May and go away... and don’t come back until St Leger day”.
with the famous race having taken place at the weekend. The phrase was coined in the days when stock market activity was dominated by rich individual traders, many of whom had bought a seat on the Exchange. They, quite normally in those days, spent much of the time between May and September holidaying or going to all the social engagements, like Henley, Wimbledon and all the big horse races.
The St Leger is the last of the five classic races to be run during the flat season and is also the oldest classic race, not just in the UK but in the world. The St Leger started in 1776 after being created by an Irish soldier named Anthony St Leger, who later became governor of St Lucia. The race started as a sweepstake for three-year-olds and was first won by Allabaculia.
Analysis of the adage shows that it is more wrong than right. Since 1965, it would have been right to sell in May 20 times, wrong to do so 24 times, with two years offering no change. In more recent times, the past eight years have seen the market higher five times, and lower three times, so is the adage valid any more?
Examination of the UK stock market this year shows an erratic picture. A sharp fall from January to February was more than matched by a sharp recovery from February to April. Then April to June saw a severe dip, giving St Leger followers a brief cheer. July to this month saw a steep bull market rally, so steep that it stands again at roughly the year’s starting level. This relates to capital only though, so generally healthy dividend income returns are in addition.
There continues to be a two-way pull, between those who believe that share prices are still undervalued, and the pessimists who have got it so wrong these past years. They, perhaps, should have had a punt on the St Leger instead.
■ Anthony Platts is a divisional director in the Teesside office of Brewin Dolphin, and can be contacted on 0845-213-1340. All prices quoted in the article are from public sources. The views expressed are not necessarily held throughout the Brewin Dolphin Group. You should bear in mind that no investment is suitable for all circumstances and it is important to seek expert advice if in any doubt. Brewin Dolphin Limited is a member of the London Stock Exchange, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules hereComments are closed on this article