Can business survive the flu?

THE NHS across the region is getting ready for what may be its biggest health emergency since it was founded in 1948. But what about the rest of the North-East economy?

When the much-feared pandemic flu finally reaches the North-East, will it cause massive disruption and dislocation? With estimates that one in four of the North-East population could be laid up in bed with a new and powerful form of flu, can day-to-day life continue? Will the lights stay on, will the buses run, will offices, factories and shops stay open?

Will there be any customers out on the streets or will they stay at home, terrified of using public transport, having contact with other people or even handling paper money?

Bryan Rees, the North-East's director of regional resilience, is doing his best to alert the business community to the coming crisis and offer advice.

While the NHS and other public sector organisations are obliged to draw up contingency plans to ensure they keep functioning, this is not true of the public sector. All Mr Rees can do is to repeat the Goverment's message to business leaders throughout the UK - that employers must get serious about the expected pandemic flu epidemic.

"Businesses, as well as the public sector, need to do continuity planning. It could be the difference between being in business and not being in business after a pandemic flu outbreak," says Mr Rees, a senior civil servant who is based in the Government's regional office in Newcastle.

Mr Rees admits the initial response last year was "a bit cool", partly because of business scepticism after the failure of the much-vaunted 'Millennium computer bug' to appear. But after the huge explosion and blaze at the Buncefield oil depot in Hertfordshire in December and the unprecedented terrorist attacks on London's transport system last July, businesses are taking notice. "Employers need to understand what they have to do to keep their core business going. We don't know when a pandemic will hit so this is a big opportunity to prepare."

He was encouraged when the regional Confederation of British Industry (CBI) recently called on North-East businesses to get their act together before the biggest flu epidemic since 1968 arrives.

"Spend some time thinking about this and you will be in a much better shape to deal with a crisis," says Mr Rees.

Apart from ensuring that staff know what to do in an emergency, businesses also needed to take steps to copy and protect data such as company accounts, payroll details and lists of suppliers and customers. "We are very keen to encourage business to prepare for a pandemic. It is not difficult to get the information you need. It's all there on a number of official Government websites," says Mr Rees.

Sarah Green, director of the CBI in the North-East, agrees that the Buncefield blaze was a wake up call to businesses to be ready for any eventuality.

"We have had enough warning. It is now time to be serious about our preparations. The one positive thing about the flu pandemic is that we're talking about it now, so businesses can take appropriate action before it arrives," she says.

Many businesses are already looking at practical measures such as having staff work from home, using technology to allow teleconferencing and supporting people who are looking after sick relatives, as well as stepping up office cleaning services to cope with the threat of the flu virus.

"Normal communication channels may be down - businesses have to work out how they are going to communicate with employees, customers and suppliers," says Mrs Green.

The CBI is advising members to go to approved Government websites for practical information about surviving a pandemic. But ultimately it is up to directors and other senior managers to take action before a major flu outbreak.

"There is no single plan to be implemented in every business. The only people who understand their business entirely are those who are running them. They have to look at the risks themselves," says Mrs Green.

Andy Sugden, policy director of the North-East Chamber of Commerce, says what is difficult for business people to imagine is the impact a pandemic could have on everyday life.

"We don't have anything to compare it to. I guess the closest we have come to it is the way the agricultural and tourism industries had to continue during the foot-and-mouth outbreak of 2001 - and that was without the workforce being directly affected," he says. Foot-and-mouth dramatically reduced the number of customers for affected businesses and stopped many people from travelling - which is what might happen during a pandemic flu outbreak

"We have told members to prepare for a pandemic, for instance to think about working from home if necessary but until a pandemic flu outbreak becomes a reality, it is going to be difficult to get people to consider the scale of the problems they might face," says Mr Sugden.

"One of the potential worries is the likelihood of scare stories circulating. And how many people are going to want to handle paper money if they think there might be a virus on it?" Businesses which depended on face-to-face contact and handling paper money could suffer under those circumstances. "If you are in retail, pubs, or cinemas, there is a worry," he says.

The main impact is likely to be the loss of employees through illness or because they are looking after someone ill at home. "If you are talking about ten to 12 per cent of your workforce off ill and then you add those who are not in work because they are looking after sick relatives, and then you consider that your staff might not want to travel to work because the bus or the train is full of people incubating flu, it is going to have a substantial effect on the ability to run your company," says Mr Sugden. Bryan Rees recommends that business people visit the following websites:

www.ukresilience.gov.uk, the main Government site with information and links.

www.mi5.gov.uk, the Security Service site with very good information on business continuity linked particularly to terrorism incidents.

www.thebci.org.uk, the site of the professional business continuity organisations.

www.continuitycentral.com, a site with articles from business community practitioners from all over the world, includes useful checklists.

Businesses across the region are drawing up contingency plans to ensure they continue to provide essential services during any pandemic crisis. A cross-section of companies comment on their plans so far:

NEDL (Northern Electric Distribution Limited) keeps the lights on in homes, hospitals, offices and factories, serving more than 3.5 million customers in the region. A spokesman said: "We are working very closely with the regional resilience team and carried out a big internal review last month to see what impact pandemic flu would have on the business. We have arrangements to re-deploy people to provide essential services. We have plans to call in more people to operate our call centre near Houghton-le-Spring if it necessary. If we have an emergency we can't handle, we have arrangements with other electricity companies to provide mutual assistance."

NTL is the UK's leading cable company, providing telephone, internet and cable television service to more than 3.3 million homes and thousands of businesses throughout the UK. The company employs 10,000 staff in the UK and operates from seven sites, including Stockton on Tees.

An NTL spokesman said: "In order to reduce any disruption to service, we take contingency planning seriously. We are able to redirect and share customer calls with alternative sites. We would also take advantage of our contract arrangements with third-party suppliers to reduce any potential impact on service."

MORRISONS is one of the leading supermarket chains in the North-East. A spokesman said: "We have procedures in place if bird flu was to enter the UK. We would follow our own procedures alongside the Government guidelines."

ARRIVA North-East runs 630 buses from Berwick down to Scarborough. An Arriva spokesman said: "We already have contingency plans in place to deal with reduced resources or a necessary reduction in service provision. If our workforce was affected by a temporary reduction in employee numbers, we would clearly have to consider reductions in service provision. Typically, this may mean thinning out services at times when they are less needed and focusing on core routes to keep people moving. We would make every use of appropriate media channels including broadcast, print and internet to tell customers of changes and availability."

AMEC is an international infrastructure project management and services company which employs more than 400 people at its Darlington offices. The company's clients in the region include Marks & Spencer, the Ministry of Defence, the National Grid, Huntsman and Innoven. A spokesman said: "We have taken advice from the authorities, who say the risk is currently low. As a precaution we have already issued advice to staff, particularly for those who travel abroad on business, and we will be constantly monitoring the situation, providing updated advice as necessary."