SIXTY-EIGHT shopping days to Christmas. If you enjoy shopping, that is 68 days of thrills and excitement. But for some of us, the realistic figure is nearer 60 days until we have to go shopping. Which is a matter of some concern to stores. They are probably wondering if the customary year-on-year, ever-increasing Christmas buying binge is going to take place this year.
Evidence of how tough things have become for retailers, was shown last week when Bhs gave a trading update. Billionaire entrepreneur, Philip Green, owner of Bhs, has not taken a dividend payment this year. Last year, he trousered a cool £40m.
Competition in the high street, and indeed out of town, is now so fierce that there is talk that many stores may announce Christmas sales even before Christmas. For years, the savvy shopper has foregone tradition, and saved the bulk of spending until after Boxing Day. The shops are finally cottoning on to this trend, and responding accordingly.
Mobile phones have recently become the year's big sellers, though. The launch of third-generation technology handsets is now creating a stampede of demand. The days of mobiles simply being sophisticated walkie-talkies are long gone. The technology to download video, music and games is about to create mobile mania.
Users of older handsets are delighted to discover that many of the new technology devices are being given away. That is because the cost of the handset is underwritten by the network operators. This is even catching the attention of the lower margin, pay-as-you-go user. While the likes of Vodafone and O2 take an initial financial hit by subsidising the phone, they recover the costs within months of minimum fixed period contract tariffs.
A perennial beneficiary of Christmas trading is the supermarket sector. It cannot have escaped the attention of shoppers that Christmas puddings have regained their old pitch in the aisles. One store hoping for a golden goose over Christmas - rather than a turkey - is Wm Morrison Supermarkets. The struggling chain should update the market on its interim performance to July 25 on Thursday. The group has had a tough first-half, integrating 178 Safeway stores and, although like-for-like sales are up by five per cent, exceptional costs will result in a small loss at the interim stage.
The conversion process is on track, and Morrisons expects the integrations and disposals to be completed by next month, in time for its busiest period. A clean balance sheet should result in a recovery during 2007 but, for the current year, analysts are forecasting a sharp fall in profits, from £321m to £99.5m.
Spirits are raised over Christmas, and one company banking on that being the case is Diageo, the combined force of the former Grand Metropolitan and Guinness. The company's best-known brands are Smirnoff vodka, Johnnie Walker whisky and Tanqueray gin, in addition to its famous black stout. The group today holds its annual meeting, at which it will explain why full-year net profits fell slightly, but will also state why it sees 2006 as a better year.
Diageo has admitted falling behind Pernod's brands of whisky and brandy in China, but is not overly worried, as the world's fastest-growing economy is providing explosive growth for every participant. As they now say in China, "Chin Chin".
* For investment advice contact Anthony Platts on 01642 608855.
Published: 18/10/2005
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