Race against time as bird flu pandemic threatens UK

As the virus was confirmed in Europe for the first time Sir Liam Donaldson pulled no punches in his bleak assessment of what would happen if it mutates into a lethal strain that can be spread by humans.

At the moment the deadly H2N1 strain of avian flu can only be passed on by infected birds.

But medics know they face a race against time to stockpile enough anti-viral drugs before the virus changes into a variant easily passed from person to person.

When that happens the deadly flu will spread around the world, killing millions.

Although three birds found dead in Romania have been confirmed as having the H5N1 virus - the same as found in Turkey earlier this month - Sir Liam urged people to remain calm.

The discovery was made by a British laboratory called in to help the Romanians.

The Department for Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) announced it was the same particularly lethal subgroup of H5N1 that has been seen in the Far East.

A spokesman said: "It is an Asian strain and it is linked to a sample found in a gull in China. It is connected to the Turkish strain."

He said a global pandemic was not likely to happen this winter.

About 60 people in Asia have died from the virus since 2003, but they have all been workers who were in close contact with poultry.

Sir Liam is due to announce an update to Government contingency plans for bird flu later this week. The plan estimates that a pandemic would infect one in four of the population, killing 53,000 people in Britain and millions world-wide.

He said yesterday that more than 12,000 people already die each year with the normal winter flu.

"But if we had a pandemic, the problem would be that our existing vaccines don't work against it, we would have to develop a new vaccine, and people don't have natural immunity because it hasn't been around before," he said.

"So the estimate we are working to in the number of deaths is around 50,000 excess deaths from flu.

"But it could be a lot higher than that, it very much depends whether this mutated strain is a mild one or a more serious one."

Sir Liam said there was a natural cycle in which every ten to 40 years the flu virus mutated into something for which there was no natural immunity and it was a question of when not if.

The Government has ordered 14 million doses of Tamiflu, an anti-viral drug that limits the spread of the virus in the body but is not a cure.

However, it has only amassed 2.5 million so far and is receiving them at the rate of just 800,000 a month.

Sir Liam said a comprehensive plan was in place to limit the impact of any pandemic, which would include the development of a vaccine and the deployment of the anti-viral drugs.

An effective vaccine cannot be manufactured yet because a mutant strain of bird flu passing between humans has not been seen.

GPs have been given advice on what to do in the event of a pandemic and over the weekend, officials said that farmers had been given expanded bio-security and risk assessment advice on the threat of bird flu.

Any outbreak would have devastating implications for the poultry industry with plans for a foot-and-mouth-style mass slaughter of birds.

The vice-chairman of the National Farmers' Union's poultry board, Chris Roach, who has a large poultry farm on the outskirts of York, said: "It is important for the small domestic keeper of chickens to be vigilant.

"They don't tend to be members of any federation and don't receive all the advice that large egg producers are given as a matter of course."

Poultry producers are being advised to restrict the movement of people and vehicles onto their land as much as possible. They are also warned to keep livestock away from wild fowl and birds which could spread the disease.

Ryedale MP John Greenway, speaking at the Council of Europe, warned: "Farmers must have complete and absolute confidence that they will be compensated fully.

"Without that, they will not report disease and it will spread."