Just prior to the 1997 election, I found myself in conversation with Sir Bernard Ingham, the former press secretary to Margaret Thatcher.

I wondered if Labour won and the Tories dumped John Major, whether Ken Clarke or Michael Heseltine would become the new leader.

Sir Bernard shook his head, predicting that neither would be chosen because they would split the party and the new leader would be someone acceptable to both wings. He was right and William Hague subsequently became leader of the Conservatives.

Looking back, that was probably the worst thing that could have happened to Hague. The crown came too early, though I still believe he may return to the fray of a leadership battle in the future.

The Conservative Party of today seem to be facing the same dilemma as in 1997. Will individual members choose a leader who most closely follows their beliefs, or one who can beat the candidate they least like.

If they want a serious chance of beating a Gordon Brown-led Labour, they should be considering which leader will best lure the millions of floating voters at the next election.

Political commentators seem to be agreed that the performance of David Davis at the party conference has done him no favours.

He went into the conference as the front runner, he comes out of it having lost ground to Ken Clarke and David Cameron.

With Ken Clarke of course, rather like John Prescott, you get exactly what it says on the label. He speaks the language of the common man and, of all the candidates, he is the one the general public recognises.

These attributes should not be underestimated. I suspect performances on mass market shows such as Richard and Judy or Jonathon Ross are actually more important when it comes to vote winning than the heavyweight programmes such as Question Time.

And that extends to the increasingly crucial area of the Despatch Box. TV news seems as keen to cover witty one-liners and put downs as it does policy announcements.

Political parties need leaders who carry the fight to the enemy and I'm sure many Conservatives still wince at memories of some of the spluttering Commons performances of Iain Duncan Smith.

What the Conservative Party conference has done is place David Cameron in the position of kingmaker. If he were to retire from the race and endorse one candidate, he could not only assure their accession but also guarantee himself whatever shadow cabinet post he fancies.

He would also neatly sidestep the problem Mr Hague faced of the crown that came too early.

If the Conservatives want to win the next election they should ask themselves which of the candidates would Labour least like to see elected leader.

In an extremely unscientific poll of local Labour Party folk, the majority I spoke to agreed it would be Ken Clarke because of his experience of government, his common touch and centre ground policies.

But, my suspicion is that Ken will be denied his last shot at glory. I suspect David Cameron will stand down and support David Davis, securing him the leadership.

Published: 07/10/2005