Knocking at the gates of Europe

IT was the high point of Turkish incursion into Europe. After a fierce battle, lasting about 16 hours, the Ottoman army led by Grand Vizier Kara Mustafa was defeated by a combined force of Austrians, Germans and Poles. The Turks had been turned back at the gates of Europe, and in the following years would be permanently driven south of the Danube, never to threaten central Europe again.

And the echoes of the 1683 Battle of Vienna still resonate. It is easy to see Austrian opposition to Turkish membership of the European Union, at least in part, springing out of the 300-year-old folk memory of the siege preceding the battle, when the city's population was reduced to starvation.

Austria has been the most dogged obstruction in the way of the EU opening membership talks with Turkey. The EU summit to discuss the terms of accession talks saw Vienna alone among the 25 member states in raising objections, potentially throwing the whole process into disarray.

But although a deal was eventually agreed yesterday, in a typical display of EU brinkmanship, Austria's concerns have profound implications for the course of the forthcoming negotiations with Turkey, as well as being a portent for how the EU might change should Turkey join.

Austrian claims to be speaking on behalf of a wider, but unrepresented, coalition of opposition may be a moot point, but there is no denying the extent of suspicion throughout the EU. A poll by Eurobarometer earlier this year found a majority against Turkish membership, with just 35 per cent in favour. Although opposition was strongest in Austria, with 80 per cent against and just ten per cent for, only in Hungary was there a majority supporting Turkish accession.

Looming elections, where both socialist and far right opposition parties in Austria are against starting membership talks, may help explain Austria's hard line, but it is also a position taken by the German CDU, now in coalition talks in Germany, and likely French presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy.

Although Austria may be alone in this coalition in having had the Ottoman Empire on its doorstep, folk memory aside, its reasons for hostility to accepting Turkey into the club press buttons in other European capitals, according to Dr Jocelyn Mawdsley, lecturer in EU politics at Newcastle University.

"The Austrians look next door to Germany, where there is a large Turkish immigrant population which, mainly due to government failure, has never successfully integrated, and they're scared of foreign migrant workers," she says.

"There may well also be an element of racism about it, saying we're a Christian club and we don't want a Muslim country joining."

There have also been suspicions that Austria's initial intransigence was at least in part a negotiating ploy, to try and restart the process in close ally Croatia's bid for membership, stalled amid frustration at its failure to co-operate with the War Crimes Tribunal. Yesterday's deal came as the tribunal reported that Croatia was becoming more helpful.

Turkey has made great play of its economic achievements in recent years, with unemployment on the way down, inflation under control and growth of around six per cent per year. But it has proved hard to dispel the fear that Turkey would be an economic drain on the rest of the EU, not helped by its massive debt, at 80 per cent of GDP around double the EU average.

The implication is that not only will Turkey require vast subsidies in agricultural and regional aid, but that the advent of open borders will see a massive movement of Turkey's poor, seeking a better life in the rest of the EU.

With a population of 70 million and growing, putting it on a par with Germany, Turkey's arrival would make it the EU's largest, as well as its poorest, state. It would also give it considerable voting power, another reason for anxiety among existing EU members.

The European Commission has ruled out the possibility of offering EU membership to North African countries, or to Russia, instead holding out the carrot of privileged partnerships, but similar controversy could arise if some of the European former Soviet states, particularly Ukraine and Belarus, were to apply.

"If it was a small and rich country, then it would be no problem," says Dr Mawdsley. "If Switzerland wanted to join, or Norway, that would be no hassle, but for a large and poor country, which has some worrying differences, then that could be difficult."

It is these differences - religious and cultural - which many Turks suspect are at the root of opposition to their membership. Although established on secular lines in 1923 - its founder Kemal Ataturk insisted on the separation of government and religion - Turkey would still be the first predominantly Muslim nation in the EU.

This also helps explain the British Government's position as the most enthusiastic supporter of Turkish membership. By accepting Turkey's application, the argument goes, the EU is sending out a signal that Christian and Muslim nations can live together, as well as bolstering a position of a key ally and a NATO member in a volatile region. It would also extend the EU's borders to Iraq, Syria and Iran.

"Britain has always seen Turkey as an example, that a successful democracy can exist in an Islamic country," says Dr Mawdsley. "It is a political symbol, something that can cool down the clash of civilisations rhetoric that is going on.

"They are saying that we wouldn't be asking Turkey to join if we didn't want to live alongside the Muslim world."

Turkish accession would also have the spin-off of bolstering Britain's view of where the EU should be heading, taking it away from the political dimension favoured by France and Germany and towards the economic model. This stance was boosted last year by the arrival of Eastern European countries, and Turkey is expected to support the British line, helping to explain French and German hesitations.

But yesterday's deal does not mean Turkish membership is now a foregone conclusion. Negotiations could take around ten years, and there is the sticking point of Cyprus to be overcome.

Turkey does not recognise the government of Cyprus, but as one of the EU club, Cyprus has a veto on any new members. Turkey, for its part, is concerned that Cyprus could join NATO, effectively forcing recognition on Ankara, requiring reassurance on this score from US Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice.

A further obstacle could lie in the referendum offered to France on Turkish membership, part of the fall-out over the rejection of the EU constitution earlier this year. Although the pragmatism of French politics means that by the time this vote takes place, political conditions may have changed, a no would be a crushing blow to Turkish aspirations.

And there is the matter of the clause inserted into yesterday's deal, stating that the EU can pull the plug on negotiations if member states believe it would be impossible comfortably to absorb Turkey into the union.

But if this opt-out, or any of the other potential hurdles, scuppers the negotiations, the implications could be wide-ranging. Turkish frustration at the pace of its application - talks began in 1959 and a previous bid was rejected in 1989 - could see Ankara turn instead to its Black Sea neighbours, says Dr Mawdsley.

"The EU is deluding itself if it thinks it can just delay negotiations. You have to have someone there to negotiate with, and when we come back I don't think Turkey would be there," she says.

"And if there is a bloc created around the Black Sea, those states would control a lot of oil and gas, the clash of civilisations argu ment would become louder.

"It would send out a signal to the rest of the world that the EU doesn't keep its word, because it has promised membership to Turkey, and is very much a white, Christian club, which isn't going to do the EU's ambitions much good at all. So much depends on it being seen to be a better choice than the US, and if it does this it could lose credibility."

And even those who insist on revisiting the battles of the past have reason not to see Turkey's entry into Europe in wholly negative terms. It was after the Battle of Vienna that the Austrians discovered bags of coffee in the abandoned Turkish camps. Shortly afterwards, the first coffeehouse in Western Europe opened in Vienna.