BARRING an absolute calamity in the last two games, Durham will be promoted in the totesport League if they beat Yorkshire at Headingley on Sunday.
Derbyshire's win against Leicestershire on Tuesday night left the Grace Road team two points behind Durham with only one game left.
Second-placed Durham will be on 44 points if they beat Yorkshire and while Warwickshire could overtake them by winning their four remaining games, the only other team who could scrape into the top three would be Derbyshire.
By winning their last two games they can finish on 44 points, but their current run-rate is minus 1.38, while Durham's is plus 10.77.
"We would have to be beaten very heavily for that gap to close," admitted Durham coach Martyn Moxon as he prepares his side's bid for a totesport double against his former club.
"I would never tempt fate in this game so even if we win on Sunday we will probably wait before cracking open the champagne.
"It would be nice to make absolutely sure in front of our own fans against Somerset the following Sunday."
Durham also have to play Warwickshire at Edgbaston in their last game on September 25 and have not given up hope of overhauling leaders Sussex, who are six points ahead but have played a game more.
Moxon heaped praise on Durham's two latest overseas men, Australians Brad Williams and Jimmy Maher, saying: "Considering they are only here for a short period the effort and commitment of both has been first-class.
"Their desire to help us gain promotion on two fronts is amazing and all the players appreciate that."
While Mike Hussey will definitely be back to skipper Durham next season, they are keen for Mick Lewis to fill the other overseas berth. Other counties are believed to be interested in the Victoria seam bowler, so Durham are hoping the fact that he enjoyed his time with them this summer will count in their favour.
They can also expect Hussey to have words with his Australia A colleague as they embark on their tour of Pakistan.
As things stand both should be available for most of next season, when former skipper Jon Lewis will also be back after accepting a new one-year contract.
His current season was ended six weeks ago when an awkward fall in the field left his collar bone broken in four places.
Two other batsmen out of contract are Nicky Peng and Gary Pratt. It is believed they have also been offered one-year deals, which they have until a month after the end of the season to accept.
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