Third time lucky?

BIG beast. Political heavyweight. Chancellor who laid the foundations for economic success later exploited by Labour. Man of the people. Ken Clarke can lay claim to them all. But now is the chance to cast off one of his more unwelcome titles: the best leader the Conservative Party never had.

Twice before the jazz-loving, cigar-smoking Mr Clarke has challenged for the Tory leadership, and twice before he has been defeated, in 1997 by William Hague in a vote of MPs, and four years later by Iain Duncan Smith in a ballot of party members.

But yesterday, the former Chancellor formally entered the fray for the third, and almost certainly the last, time. Declaring he was "desperate" to lead the Tories back into power, he had no doubt that he was the man to save his party, and to lead his country.

His decision had been widely anticipated but still sent shudders through the other would-be candidates, and for the first time injected a note of urgency and importance into the race to succeed Michael Howard, altering the whole balance of the contest.

David Davis, the front-runner ever since Mr Howard announced his intention to resign, now knows he has a real fight on his hands. David Cameron, the rising star, now knows his first battle will be to represent the left of the party. The other candidates know they will struggle simply to avoid being flattened by the Clarke juggernaut.

Mr Clarke has also stolen a march on his rivals in what had previously been a phoney war in being the first to formally throw his hat in the ring, even before the rules of the contest have been decided.

"It matters very much that he has declared ahead of David Cameron, because he is going to take a lot of Cameron's liberal and progressive supporters," says Dr Martin Farr, politics lecturer at Newcastle University. "Before this announcement, a lot of his natural supporters had declared for Cameron, now he has trumped Cameron."

But if the former chancellor is to realise his ambitions, he has to overcome two key obstacles. The first is his age. The second is his attitude to Europe.

At 65, he is a year older than departing leader Mr Howard, who stepped down saying he was too old to lead the party into the next election. But this is not necessarily a handicap, says Dr Farr. "It has helped that Michael Howard has been a more effective leader than Iain Duncan Smith or William Hague, and that suggests that experience is more important than youth or apparent freshness.

"A lot of it rests on whether younger people want a younger leader, and I'm not sure that is the case. We're not talking about playing for England, it is an occupation where experience does count and I think his age doesn't matter."

Mr Clarke's other main disadvantage is his attitude on Europe, widely thought to have cost him the 1997 leadership election. As a Europhile and enthusiast of the euro, he is distinctly at odds with the majority of Tory MPs and activists. But, although some activists will never forgive him for sharing a stage with Tony Blair to support the euro, this time the tide may be moving in his favour.

The French and Dutch rejections of the European Constitution have effectively killed the issue of further integration, at least for the time being, and the recent poor performance of the eurozone means Britain's entry has been taken off the agenda. As a result, Mr Clarke was able to say last week that entry into the euro would not happen in his political career without seeming to be overly compromising his own views.

But he still faces a formidable challenge, particularly from Mr Davis. The Shadow Home Secretary is still the favourite and his looks have made him popular with focus groups. He also has a tough guy image, as a member of the Territorial Army SAS, and an upbringing which could appeal to those wanting the party to appear more inclusive.

As the son of a single parent, brought up on a council estate, he can cross boundaries previously off-limits to the Conservatives, but while his right-wing instincts may be popular with activists, they could lead the party down the same cul-de-sac as Messers Hague and Duncan-Smith, with only electoral defeat ahead.

His background makes him the very opposite of David Cameron, the Eton and Oxford educated Shadow Education Secretary. Although Mr Cameron is at the forefront of the so-called Notting Hill set of Tory modernisers, and will appeal to those who believe the Conservatives need to do something dramatic to reverse their decline, after being in the Commons for just four years the contest may be thought to have come too early for him. In the battle to be the standard-bearer of the left of the party, it may come down to Mr Cameron's freshness versus Mr Clarke's experience, and those on the left may plump for the former chancellor as the best bet to defeat Mr Davis, knowing that Mr Cameron's time is yet to come.

But the key to the outcome could lie in the rules of the contest. Outgoing leader Mr Howard has proposed reverting back to confining the choice to MPs, abandoning the system, introduced by Mr Hague, of giving all party members a say introduced by Mr Hague. If this is agreed at the Tory Party Conference next month, then Mr Clarke's chances will be markedly improved.

"It has been a disaster for them to have allowed activists a say, for the simple reason that governments are not elected by activists but by people of no political affiliation," says Dr Farr. It was the party members who chose Mr Duncan Smith as leader, whose performance was judged so poor he was ditched without ever fighting a general election.

Dr Farr says he expects the contest to come down to a run-off between Mr Clarke and Mr Davis. If it is just up to MPs, it will be Mr Clarke. If party members have a vote, then Mr Davis will get the nod. But while the choice may come down to ideology, if the party is serious about regaining power, there is only one real option, he argues.

"If I wanted to see a Conservative government, I would want to see Clarke winning," Dr Farr says. "They're going to be facing Gordon Brown as Labour leader at the next election, and Gordon Brown will find it much harder dealing with Ken Clarke than David Davis.

"This is Ken Clarke's last opportunity, and it all depends on whether the Parliamentary Party, which is more mainstream, or the activists, who are more to the right, are the ultimate electorate."

The Tory handicap stakes

David Davis (57)

Shadow Home Secretary.

For: Action-man image (he was in the Territorial Army's SAS), and working class credentials (single-parent family and brought up on a council estate) could make party feel more dynamic and inclusive.

Against: Right-wing views may not appeal to party's modernising faction. Reputation for plotting while Tory chairman, culminating in being sacked by Iain Duncan Smith in 2001.

Odds: 2/5

Kenneth Clarke (65)

Former Chancellor now on the back benches.

For: Cigar-smoking, jazz-loving image has given him a popular appeal unmatched by any of his rivals. Experience and intelligence makes him the man most feared by Labour.

Against: Europhile position at odds with majority of party. At 65, and 70 by the time of the next election, could be seen as too old.

Odds: 7/2

David Cameron (38)

Education spokesman.

For: Leading moderniser, tipped as man most likely to do for the Tories what Tony Blair did for Labour.

Against: Old Etonian background could count against him, as well as a feeling his time has not yet come.

Odds: 4-1

Sir Malcolm Rifkind (59)

Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary and Former Foreign Secretary

For: Sharp-witted and experienced, serving in the Cabinet for 11 years under both Margaret Thatcher and John Major.

Against: Identified with the left of the party and out of parliament between 1997-2005, denying him the chance to cultivate new MPs.

Odds: 16-1

Liam Fox (43)

Shadow Foreign Secretary

For: Right-wing Eurosceptic with a reputation as a capable performer.

Against: May be overshadowed by Davis as the right-wing candidate.

Odds: 20-1

Andrew Lansley (48)

Shadow Health Secretary

For: Leading moderniser and one of the few Tory MPs to oppose the Iraq war.

Against: Low-key competence could also be seen as uninspiring. Little public recognition.

Odds: 25-1

David Willetts (49)

Shadow Trade and Industry Secretary

For: Moderniser with reputation for formidable intelligence - his nickname is "Two Brains".

Against: Widely considered to lack the steel to lead the party.

Odds: 50-1

Theresa May (48)

Shadow Family Secretary

For: One of the most successful of 1997 intake, promoted a modernising agenda while party chairman.

Against: Could be seen as the token woman candidate, lacking sufficient gravitas to lead the party.

Odds: 66-1

Odds: William Hill