Is the gold standard failing our children?

Those 23 years have also seen a substantial improvement in the A-level results, a run expected to be extended today. But while no-one claims the marathon is getting easier, A-level students have not got off so lightly.

The bald figures are revealing. In 1982, only 8.9 per cent of students achieved grade A at A-level, but last year that figure reached 22.4 per cent. The pass rate was 68.2 per cent in 1982, but 23 years of successive improvement have seen that rise to 96 per cent last year. This year it is expected to be 96.5 per cent, and it seems to be only be a matter of time before it is 100 per cent.

A level of improvement on this scale, and over each of 23 years without fail, has inevitably attracted scepticism. This is a sign, the critics say, that the exams are getting easier and that standards are getting lower. Perhaps even that the inexorable rise is the result of government interference, as ministers want to claim the credit for rising educational achievement.

It was this view, that an examination once considered the gold standard of the English education system had now been devalued, which lay behind the calls to abolish A-levels and replace them with an International Baccalaureate, a more challenging test of ability over a broader range of subjects. This was the path recommended by Sir Mike Tomlinson in his report on the future of the examination system earlier this year, a report which was largely rejected by the Government.

On the other side is the belief that the improving pass rate is a sign that the education system is working. That the teaching is getting better, or that the children are working harder. To say otherwise, it is argued, is to denigrate the efforts and abilities of the students who will be unfolding their results' slips this morning. Further, such arguments are often put by those unable to accept that their own achievements have been surpassed by a younger generation.

The public is split. An opinion poll published by the think tank Reform found that 46 per cent of voters thought A-levels had become easier, but the truth is likely to be a mixture of the two viewpoints, according Daniel Muijs, professor of school leadership and management at Newcastle University.

He says there are three possible explanations for the improvement. One is that the children are getting more intelligent. Although worldwide IQ scores have been rising, suggesting this may indeed be a long-term trend, this is not a process which takes place year on year. A second explanation is that schools are getting better at teaching. This, he says, may be part of the answer.

"It is true that over the last couple of decades, governments have been more interested in education and there is a lot more effort to raise standards. There is probably something in the theory of rising standards," he says.

But there is a catch. Research into educational standards shows that where there have been improvements, these have tended to come in fits and starts, not in a continual process. Results might improve for a couple of years, then level off, then improve again, but the graph is never consistently upwards.

"Year after year constant improvement - if that was really down to schools, then the Government has found the most successful school improvement programme in the world," says Professor Muijs. This leaves only one conclusion.

"Part of the explanation has to be that exams are getting easier. It would be peculiar to see that kind of year on year improvement for any of the other reasons, and that is the only explanation that remains," he adds.

This view appears to be supported by research undertaken by the Curriculum Evaluation and Management Centre at Durham University. Analysis by Professor Peter Tymms, Dr Robert Coe and Dr Christine Merrell compared A-level results with the results of a Test of Developed Abilities (TDA), a benchmark test sat by a sample group of A-level students.

They found that there had been a decline in the TDA scores between 1988 and 2001, and a possible slight increase after 2001, a period when A-levels had improved by an average of one-and-a-half grades across all subjects, and about three grades for maths, a traditionally severely graded subject. Although the Durham team cites changes in syllabuses as a possible factor in the rising A-level grades, their conclusion is unequivocal.

"Careful analysis of grades in relation to independently collected test data shows that higher grades are being awarded to pupils of the same ability. This drift has been apparent for at least 15 years and has not suddenly appeared," the team says. "It is our opinion..., that A-level has become more leniently graded over the years."

The team points out that this is not necessarily a bad thing: it means more students are able to get into higher education. The problem is that it is harder to separate the highest level of attainment. As more students get an A grade, it is more difficult to determine to who are the brightest students. "The top grades no longer mean the same as they used to," the team adds.

This makes it difficult for universities to assess which are the most able students, says Prof Muijs. "It becomes very difficult to start selecting people on the basis of A-levels if too many candidates have the top grades," he says.

And it is not just universities facing this quandary. Businesses also struggle to differentiate the most able students, according to Andy Sugden, director of policy for the North-East Chamber of Commerce. He says businesses do not want to challenge the achievement of students, particularly on the day they get their results, but says the situation is a source of frustration for many employers.

"It is very difficult to tell where the real talent is, who has got the ability to be the high-fliers in an organisation, and ultimately it compromises the recruitment process," he says.

"When people leave school after 13 years and it is still impossible to tell who are the good mathematicians, that is the biggest disappointment."

He says many businesses were disappointed that the Government backed away from introducing a broader-based qualification, along the baccalaureate lines, although this debate may be reopened after today's results.

The Government is said to be considering introducing an A* grade into A-levels, similar to that for GCSEs, or making individual marks available and not just grades, to help differentiate between the top grade students, but ministers have remained defiant that there has been no dumbing down.

Schools minister Lord Adonis says that rising standards are due to improvements in teaching and increased investment in schools.

"Continued progress in exam performance is real - it is not the result of dumbing down of standards - and the roots of this success lie in a fundamental shift in the quality of teaching in our schools," he says.

And he says it is possible to overstate the improvements. In an average primary class of 30 pupils, only 14 will take A-levels, and just one will get three A grades.

"In the modern world - with better teaching and steadily higher aspirations - educational success isn't like tickets for the next Test match, where there is a fixed supply of a precious commodity," he says. "Rather, it is like the marathon, where, with ability and proper training, growing numbers can succeed and complete the course in faster times."

Athletics, of course, has not been free from claims that some competitors have had their performance artificially enhanced. The consolation is that at least the athletes who are clean know their time is genuine, even if the sport itself has been smeared.

* Where now after your results - P14