Will peace break out in Northern Ireland?

FOR more than 30 years, Republicans have been proclaiming in graffiti across Belfast their refusal to give up on the dream of a united Ireland. Slogans from "No Surrender" to "Not a bullet, Not an ounce", have asserted the determination to continue the armed struggle. But yesterday's historic statement suggests it is the IRA which has finally seen the writing on the wall.

The IRA's decision formally to end its armed campaign, and pursue its goals instead through peaceful means, has been hailed as the most significant step yet in the history of the Troubles. It appears to bring to an end the violent history of an organisation which has been blamed for the deaths of more than 1,770 people, including police officers, soldiers, politicians and civilians.

And the indications are that this leap forward reflects not so much a belief that its aims are in sight, as a response to overwhelming pressure to bring its armed struggle to an end.

Although there have been many false dawns in the history of the Northern Ireland peace process - it is 11 years since the IRA's first ceasefire - there are good grounds for optimism in the light of yesterday's move, according to Dr Rhiannon Talbot, terrorism expert at Newcastle University.

"The language that is used is very significant, and it is perhaps the most important development yet," she says. "It is as close as we will ever get to a declaration of the end of the war.

"How significant it proves to be is a long-term question, but for the organisation to feel secure enough in its volunteers to be able to make such a statement without a public split is very important."

The IRA has been sounding out its members since April, when Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams challenged the organisation to abandon the gun and embrace politics. It has also been gauging feelings among Nationalist communities, crucial to its survival. If nothing else, yesterday's statement is a reflection of the view among the IRA's bedrock of support.

Despite caution from hardline Unionists, particular Democratic Unionist Party leader Dr Ian Paisley, if the decommissioning takes place and criminal activities cease, the tables will have been turned quite dramatically on both Unionists and Loyalist paramilitaries. The onus will firmly be on them to match the IRA's moves with gestures, and decommissioning, of their own.

Although there are still several stumbling blocks in the way of peace, David Whittaker, former international relations lecturer at Teesside University and author of a number of books on terrorism, agrees that the importance of yesterday's statement should not be underestimated.

"If it really means they proceed to disarm, then I think it is historic," he says. "You have always got to be cautious given the width of this particular movement, but it sounds tremendously significant.

"And for all the talk about counter-violence to defeat terrorism, it shows that you have got to understand the motives of the terrorists."

According to Dr Talbot, the IRA's move should be seen in the context of a groundswell of opinion among the Nationalist community, a view that it was time to lay down its arms. This view was hardened by the murder of Robert McCartney in January, and the Northern Bank robbery in December, when £26.5m was taken in a raid believed to have been carried out by the IRA.

"There has been a cumulative effect of a number of different factors, and these were the straws that broke the camel's back," says Dr Talbot. "The murder in particular, and the way the IRA responded to it, was very brutal.

"The international situation has also been quite significant. There has been a sea change in support in America, where they have become far more aware of the consequences of terrorism and far less tolerant."

America's attitude has been governed not just by 9/11, but by a succession of terrorist attacks throughout the 1990s on US interests, both at home and abroad. From the USS Cole and the bombing of the US embassy in Tanzania, to the Oklahoma bombings, America has experienced terrorism on a large scale for the first time.

The culmination of this shift in attitudes saw Gerry Adams refused a visa to visit America this year, and President Bush symbolically meeting Mr McCartney's sisters, instead of a Sinn Fein representative, on St Patrick's Day. The impact lies less in drying up a source of revenue - US donations have long played second fiddle to organised crime in the IRA's income - but in the loss of political support.

Even Senator Edward Kennedy, one of the most outspoken supporters of the Nationalist cause in the US, called for the IRA to disband earlier this year.

But if the IRA's move is a response to pressure and a realisation that the appetite for armed struggle among its communities has evaporated, it can claim significant success, even if its goal of a united Ireland is still some way away.

Ever since the creation of the Irish Free State, the IRA has regarded itself as the legitimate government of Ireland but, until the Troubles, found little support for its beliefs south of the border. Now Sinn Fein can boast of being the fastest growing political movement in Ireland, bringing the Republican aspiration a step closer. And if power-sharing with the Unionists is a situation which pleases nobody, it has the advantage of keeping everyone on board.

The Republican movement also has the knowledge that it has demographics on its side. Comparative birth rates between Catholics and Protestants point to a 50:50 split within the next 30-40 years. Although Catholic does not equate to Nationalist, the indications are that the Unionist majority will not last for ever.

But however historic yesterday's statement, no-one should be under any illusions over the scars which are still to heal, or the steps which are still to be taken.

"People are willing to let go of some of their political ideals in order to secure peace, and it takes a long time to reach that position," says Dr Talbot. "But there have been generations of violence, and it takes a long time to come back from that and start trusting people again."