THE English beef market is expected to remain robust, despite higher than expected production during the first half of the year.

The loss of headage payments and an indifferent spring saw producers take advantage of their new-found marketing flexibility, finishing steers earlier out of yards, instead of turning them out to grass for autumn finishing.

The English Beef and Lamb Executive reports that steer slaughterings in the first half of the year rose by more than 1pc, while both heifer and young bull slaughterings declined.

"This restructuring has also led average carcase weights to increase markedly - 13.3 kg from last year to average over 332.5 kg/head in April and May," said Duncan Sinclair, MLC economics manager. "Carcase weights are now projected to average 325 kg for 2005 against 319.5 kg last year, pushing forecast annual UK production up just over 1pc to 719,000 tonnes."

Despite a flush of South American imports ahead of the expected early summer steak demand, which did not materialise, imports over the year to April were down by 15pc.

"For 2005 as a whole, imports are forecast to be 4pc lower than 2004," said Mr Sinclair.

"Irish beef supplies are decidedly tighter. Irish records show the number of one-to-two-year-old stock on farm last December down fully 5pc on 2003, with national production for 2005 forecast to be 4pc lower than 2004.

"Under these circumstances and given last summer's unrealistic price peaks, the prospects are for a more stable autumn trade, decidedly better than previous years."

Mr Sinclair said the prospect of cattle born after July, 1996, returning to the food chain before the end of the year must be taken into account but, with the continuing EU shortage of manufacturing beef, the impact on prime cattle prices was likely to be only temporary.

The lamb market is forecast to remain stable, despite a bumper lamb crop.

With an estimated 600,000 extra lambs in the supply chain, English auction throughputs in June were up 2,500 head a week on 2004 and Eblex expects numbers to go higher, particularly after the relatively flat hogget marketing in the spring. It expects a higher proportion of the lamb crop to be finished in the second half of the year, rather than carried over to the first quarter of 2006.

Lamb retail sales have been particularly strong this spring and early summer - 3.5pc up on 2004. They will be further buoyed by the first major Eblex English Quality Standard promotion from September.

Mr Sinclair said English lamb exports were also proving remarkably robust.

"Exchange rates will be crucial in maintaining returns but the 5pc annual decline forecast in Irish lamb slaughterings undoubtedly strengthens export opportunities," he said.

Although a higher proportion of lamb imports had been in chilled form, the overall volume of imported sheepmeat fell by 11pc in the year to April and was expected to fall by about 3pc over the current year, mainly because of higher domestic production.

All these factors left total UK sheepmeat supplies available for consumption very similar to 2004, underlining the particular stability of the market.

"Eblex sees this underlying stability as good news for producers over the coming autumn, but only if they do everything possible to maintain a level production profile," said Mr Sinclair.

He warned that the very poor current level of returns from skins, as well as any unnecessary peaks of supply could have an adverse impact on market realisations.

The Eblex Better Returns Programme is running a series of workshops and demonstrations across England through the summer. Details are available on 0870 241 8829 or www.eblexbetterreturns.org.uk.