Darlington Mowden Park can beat Birmingham and Solihull today and reach the last 16 of the Tetley's Bitter Cup for the second successive season.
So says Matt Howland, who has had two tastes of playing at Birmingham's level in the last two seasons.
The 21-year-old 16st threequarter has appeared in the second division for West Hartlepool and Coventry, returning both times to Mowden, where he began in the minis.
"I think we have a chance," he said. "I saw Birmingham play Coventry this season when I was injured and they are a strong side. They have a big set of forwards, but I think we can overpower them.
"They have eight or nine ex-Coventry players, so there was a lot of needle in the match and they got bullied off the ball."
Following promotion last season, when they also reached the last 16 of the cup, the Midlanders are three divisions above Mowden and home advantage makes them favourites.
But in their two games against Rosslyn Park last season they won 16-11 and 16-12, while Mowden beat the Londoners 23-11 in the cup.
The ground, which is in Solihull following the merger 11 years ago, is expected to be in reasonably good condition.
The hosts recruited quite heavily over the summer, while the loss of Nopera Stewart, Liam Chadwick, Ross Jennings and initially Howland left Mowden looking for a pair of centres.
They have opted for the pairing of Howland and 18-year-old Mark Bedworth today, with Howland pleased to be back in his favourite position.
He played on the wing for West Hartlepool for much of last season, when he says financial worries forced him to play with an injury so he could collect his match fee.
"I thought they were going to fix me up with a job and a car, but it didn't happen," he said. "I was quite happy playing for them - it was a good team, but we were just too young and too small.
"I played at centre for Coventry for the first two or three games of this season.
"Then I was injured and the coaches were sacked. The senior players took over and favoured their old mates. They asked me to go out on loan, but I didn't fancy that so I asked for my contract to be terminated."
An ex-Branksome School pupil, Howland joined the Army at 16, but now has a job in Darlington and is happy to stick with Mowden.
They are hoping his power will punch a few holes in the home defence today as they chase the prize of a probable fifth round trip to Northampton.
Mowden Park: K McCallum, C Mattison, M Howland, M Bedworth, S Thompson, K Oliphant, P Harvey, D Sinclair, T Tuhana, I Keeligan, S Sanderson, J Malcolm, T Irwin, D McKinnon, D Russell.
Once Newcastle have got through today's tie at Rosslyn Park they can look ahead to next week's fifth round match at home to Bristol or Wasps.
But there is some doubt about whether that game will go ahead today because of a waterlogged pitch, and if it is rescheduled for next week that would not worry Newcastle.
They are currently without Scottish internationals George Graham, Stuart Grimes and John Leslie, who are playing against the USA at Murrayfield today, with a match against Australia coming up next week.
The trip to Rosslyn Park at least gives South African prop Marius Hurter the chance of a not-too-demanding return after recovering from his broken leg.
He replaces Graham at tight head, and the only other change from last Sunday's win against Begles Bordeaux sees Jim Jenner come into the back row for Richard Arnold, who has a calf strain.
Tynedale face a tough tie at home to unbeaten second division leaders Worcester. They have hooker Ed Parker back to partner his brother Richard in the front row.
Darlington player-coach Phil Lancaster and skipper David Andrew both settle for places on the bench to allow teenagers Dan Miller and Robbie Stewart to start the North Two East match at home to York.
Marc Potts makes his first senior appearance of the season in place of unavailable centre Simon White, while Neil Burnside returns at lock with Bryan Dixon switching to No 8.
l Former Middlesbrough junior Jonathan Steel is in the Scotland team to play the USA at Murrayfield today.
His selection completes a rapid rise to the top for the 19-year-old winger, who left Boro to join Northampton last season and is now playing for Glasgow Caledonians.
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