BARRING a minor miracle, London's benchmark FTSE-100 Index of leading stocks will end the year today lower than it started - something that has only happened twice in its history.

This time last year, the Footsie was motoring up to a record high, fuelled by euphoria over the prospects for dot.coms and pre-millennium fever.

It ended the year at 6930.2, 1,051 points higher than its 1999 first day price, with record volumes traded on all the major FTSE indices.

But with the bursting of the dot.com ''bubble'' and growing concerns about the health of the US economy, the market turned distinctly bearish during 2000.

Yesterday the Footsie was once again heading downwards, at one point off 44.5 points, although by the close it had recovered some ground and stood up five points at 6223.2.

The last time the index, which was launched in 1984, ended the year lower than it started was in 1994. The other time was in 1990.

David Page, economist at stockbroker Investec, said UK stocks had largely been led downwards by the shake-out over the year in the US.

But he was cautiously optimistic about the prospects for 2001.

While the year was unlikely to be as volatile as 2000 - where old economy stocks were unceremoniously dumped in favour of tech-led newcomers, only for investors to turn tail once again - it would nevertheless not be a disaster, he said.

The key would be whether the US Federal Reserve could ensure a smooth landing for the US economy.

While global growth would undoubtedly ease during 2001, it would not fall below expectations.

''People are perhaps looking for more realistic returns than they had previously. We will see a more considered portfolio from the investor going forward,'' said Mr Page.