PROVIDED the draw does not have a profound effect on the result of today's £50,000 Lincoln Handicap, in my book Vintage Premium (3.45) is the one they all have to beat.

Whichever way you look at the equation, Richard Fahey's useful four-year-old must have a fighting chance at the weights. First and foremost, the selection is potentially verging on Group 3 class - always a good sign when contemplating backing any horse competing in handicap company.

Secondly, he acts on soft ground, conditions certain to prevail after a miserable couple of days at the south Yorkshire venue.

And thirdly, Vintage Premium had a more than pleasing pipe-opener on the fibresand at Wolverhampton a fortnight ago, where, after getting badly out-paced in the early stages, he kicked in the turbo down the home straight to make up a prodigious amount of late headway to snatch fourth spot.

"I couldn't be more pleased with him," said Fahey, but the $64,000 question remains: Do the low numbers hold the call when the ground is riding hock deep?

Recent statistics undoubtedly suggest this is the case, although on the evidence of yesterday's results, the fastest strip of turf is hard against the stands rail.

Whatever direction the jockeys decide to go, John Reid should hopefully be able to steer Vintage Premium to a famous win and land the nap.

The dangers include the well-handicapped Espada, plus top-weight Pulau Tioman, both of whom at the very minimum merit each-way savers in what is a wide-open race.

In the following six-furlong Listed Cammidge Trophy, a bunch of truly battle-hardened sprinters take each other on for the Listed prize.

The big story of the £22,000 clash is the inclusion in the line-up of John Ferneley, winner of last year's Lincoln. Although technically within her rights, trainer Lynda Ramsden's decision to declare John Ferneley for this year's Lincoln, only to defect at the last minute in favour of the Cammidge, makes something of a mockery of the specially created 48-hour declaration system.

And surprise, surprise, it's the poor old ante-post punter who gets stung where it hurts most - in the pocket - because any money wagered on the Ramsden's horse now goes straight into the bookmakers' satchels.

Maybe John Ferneley will have the speed to drop back a couple of furlongs and still win, as Mrs Ramsden argues: "I don't think he'd get a mile in these conditions, the way the ground is riding you need a seven-furlong horse to win a six-furlong race."

I doubt whether the strapping six-year-old can take on specialist speed merchants, even ones as talented as John Ferneley, and I prefer to rely on Further Outlook (4.15), who ran fantastically well to finish fourth over an inadequate five furlongs at the course on Thursday.

The closing March Handicap presents the improving Robin Sharp (5.15) with the perfect opportunity to make full use of his fitness advantage from a money-spinning winter sand campaign.

Many of the three-year-olds facing the starter will be far from fully wound up, especially as so many trainers have had to contend with waterlogged grass gallops.

It therefore makes sense to side with individuals such as Robin Sharp, who have actually made the racecourse in recent weeks. And more importantly, the Willie Jarvis-trained colt has not finished out of the frame in his last four starts.

All of the leading British layers are chalking up prices for the desert carnival at Nad Al Sheba, however it's a pity there's no UK interest in the £4000000 Dubai World Cup, scheduled to be covered by the BBC at 5.15.

Doubtless Sheikh Mohammed, who lets face it pays for the whole shooting match, including all of the phenomenal massive prize money on offer, will be keen to keep the mega-dosh on home soil.

Personally I've never quite understood the logic of trying to win back what is theoretically one's own money, but that's just what Frankie Dettori's mount, the Godolphin-owned Best Of The Bests (5.15), will be doing if, as expected, he justifies favouritism.

Earlier in the afternoon, Tim Easterby's North Yorkshire-trained flying filly, Pipalong, attempts to defy odds of 20-1 by taking the five-furlong Golden Shaneen sprint.

Newbury needs to pass an early-morning inspection and it would be a great pity if such a good card joined the ever-growing list of fixture casualties.

If proceedings do get the green light, young Lorna Bradburne faces by far and away the biggest test of her short career aboard Miss Ellie (2.30) in the £30,000 Crandon Stud Mares Only Novices' Final.

Miss Ellie has come on in leaps and bounds over the past couple of months with a brace of scintillating victories at Musselburgh.

It's a very tall order to convert Musselburgh form down to a grade 1 track like Newbury, nevertheless I believe the hugely-progressive five-year-old might easily be up to the task.

Mark Pitman has great faith in Dulas Bay (3.05), bidding to make it three out of four in the Vineyard At Stockcross Novices' Chase.

In fact he would have won all three races to date barring an unfortunate fall at Wincanton, where he was three lengths clear with the race in the bag only to make a complete hash of the second last fence.