THE controversial package of reforms thrown at the beef industry immediately after the eruption of the European BSE crisis last November could soon run out of steam, according to the National Beef Association.

It says there are signs that, if it can add a reduction in stocking rates to 1.8 livestock units per hectare and the freezing of suckler cow premium reserves to the ceiling it has already secured, the European Commission will abandon the other proposals by early June.

That should mean that beef special premium quotas, the re-imposition of the 90-head limit and the infliction of the compulsory 20pc heifer rule on suckler cow premium payments, which would have done so much to pull down UK beef production and reduce management flexibility, will all be avoided.

"This seems hard to believe, considering the fuss at the time," said Mr Robert Robinson, NBA chairman, "but the current view in Brussels is that the council of agriculture ministers panicked at the collapse in consumer confidence in mainland Europe last autumn and gave the European Commission such overheated instructions it came back with a raft of unworkable reforms."

According to the NBA, the ministers can only agree on the introduction of the reduced 1.8 unit stocking rate and on their total dislike of BSP quotas and the re-introduction of the 90-head BSP limit.

"On every other issue, like the 20pc heifer rule or the introduction of dairy calf destruction schemes, they are split into fragmented camps that appear impossible to reconcile," said Mr Robinson.

"If the European Commission was itself desperate to push the package through, it would work harder at brokering an all-EU agreement but, now that it has the purchase for destruction scheme in place, we are told it prefers instead to offer individual help on calf destruction or early marketing schemes for countries that request them.