IT is no coincidence that Camelot and Sir Richard Branson's People's Lottery both came up with the figure of £15bn for good causes when they made their bids for the National Lottery.

It was, presumably, not a figure which was plucked out of thin air. For it to have any meaning, it must have been carefully calculated on the basis of ticket sale trends.

It is therefore a smack in the teeth for charitable organisations that their slice of the Lottery cake could now be eaten away by as much as £5bn.

A slump in ticket sales has been blamed - but it is not a slump that can have come as a surprise to anyone.

Indeed, Robert Blow, the spokesman for the Community Fund - formerly the National Lottery Charities Board - conceded that yesterday when he said: "...this is historically what happens with lotteries. There is initial interest but then people lose interest."

If it was so utterly predictable, why was the target for good causes set so high that charities are now facing such a let down? Why was more caution - if not more honesty - shown?

And to what extent can the decline in interest be blamed on the public disquiet over the way the Lottery has been run by Camelot? By a significant margin, we would suggest.

Public confidence, which had already been undermined by the "fat cat" row, exposing vast salaries and bonuses paid to Camelot executives, was further eroded by the confusion over the granting of the licence.

People, in increasing numbers, are baulking at the idea that the money they pay for a slim chance to win a fortune is lining the pockets of Camelot's shareholders.

And, while the fat cats might not be quite as fat as a result of the slump in ticket sales, they will forgive us for being far more concerned about the charitable organisations which will be bitterly disappointed because Camelot was so wildly off the mark with its figures.

It will be very interesting indeed to see how much is picked up in bonuses by those who got it so badly wrong.