MAINTAINING a comprehensive record of handicap ratings and their movements up and down the scale is a crucial part of any successful tipster's armoury.
Haydock-bound Secret Conquest (2.40) is a classic case in point. On Saturday I advised readers of this column to back the filly at Doncaster purely on the basis that over the course of the past two years she had dropped from a respectable mark of 82, to a rather dismal 48.
Not only did Secret Conquest duly oblige at the reasonably rewarding starting price of 7-2, I believe a second visit to the well is perfectly justifiable in the full knowledge that she only has a 6lb penalty to shoulder for the victory.
After all the arithmetic is there for all to analyse, that is to say she still has around two stone in hand on the level of form achieved as a juvenile.
In the later Goose Green Handicap, Barningham (4.10) warrants close inspection.
He's a hard-pulling blighter, as Paul Eddery will testify - his arms looked a good two inches longer after riding him into fourth spot at Redcar 12 days ago!
Paul never really won the battle for preliminary restraint that day, a pity since if Barningham had not wasted quite so much early energy with his headstrong nature, he probably would have won.
In the closing Victoria Park Fillies' Handicap, Forum Finale (4.40) deserves a change of fortune.
The daughter of Silver Hawk, who has been placed numerous times this term, was rather cruelly nailed by Tiyoun and Spring Symphony in the final 100 yards at Ripon last month.
The stable of Maidstone-based John Best has been very quiet lately, an unenviable situation for any trainer keen to do well for his owners.
Best has to struggle along with many low-grade sorts such as the dour stayer Established (4.30), in with a shout for the finale at Chepstow, the two-mile-two-furlong Monmouth Handicap.
The selection picked up a couple of similar races at Nottingham and Lingfield during the Millennium campaign, and signalled his turn was once again nigh at Warwick recently with a never nearer fourth.
Predominately downhill tracks suit James Dee (7.25), potentially the best bet on a busy evening card at Epsom.
The five-year-old has demonstrated a liking for Brighton in the past, a venue not unlike Epsom with its helter-skelter configuration.
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