PRIMARY pupil numbers across Darlington will drop dramatically over the next five years according to government statisticians.

The Tees Valley joint strategy unit has calculated that, by 2006, surplus places across the borough's primary schools will almost double from 856 to 1,619.

In contrast, secondary school numbers will have risen from 6,000 to a peak of 6,400 by 2004, before levelling out.

The data is calculated using past peaks and troughs in pupil numbers, birth rate trends and future housing development plans for the area.

The information is then used to help local authorities plan the organisation and development of their schools.

Mr David Staples, assistant director of education for Darlington council, told lifelong learning scrutiny committee members on Tuesday that the strategy unit rarely got their sums wrong.

He said: "The unit uses past trends and demographic changes to make their calculations. They know how many people there are in different age groups and how many children they are likely to have. Peaks and troughs in the birth rate relate to the same time 40 years ago. The figures are never hugely wrong."

The increase in surplus school places across the town follows the regional trend for a fall-off in pupil numbers.

However, in Darlington the trend is believed to be less than in other parts of the Tees Valley.

Mr Staples added: "On the back of this information a lot of our future school place planning will now centre around how we remove surplus places.

"The new school at Firth Moor takes out 260 surplus places and both Eastbourne and Branksome school refurbishments were funded on the back of the removal of surplus places.

"We inherited poor school buildings from Durham County Council which needed millions of pounds spending on them just to bring them up to standard.

"The removal of surplus places is a lever in to funds to improve facilities and update our schools."