MILLIONS of animals may have to be vaccinated unless Britain can eradicate foot-and-mouth within the next few weeks, experts predicted last night.

They painted a grim picture of Britain still in the grip of a foot-and-mouth epidemic well into next year, unless the Government changes its policy and vaccinates.

Hopes that the disease would be all but over by now have been dashed by recent fresh outbreaks in North Yorkshire.

Experts say time is running out for the disease to be stamped out before the onset of cooler weather.

Scientists believed a mass cull combined with sunny weather would stamp out the disease, because foot-and-mouth is killed by ultraviolet light.

The number of new cases has fallen dramatically to just a handful a day. But the refusal of foot-and-mouth to disappear altogether has raised concerns it could last into the autumn - with the return of the cold, wet weather providing ideal conditions for new outbreaks.

Government ministers are facing a nightmare scenario whereby foot-and-mouth again rages across the country and only another mass slaughter programme, or wholesale vaccination, could stop it.

Latest Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) statistics show there has been an average of three new cases a day for the last two weeks with North Yorkshire at the epicentre.

Defra has declined to predict when the disease could be eradicated, but mircobiologist Derek Ellwood, visiting professor at Newcastle University, said if it was still around by the autumn then vaccination would have to be reconsidered.

He said: "My guess is that if we don't maintain the vigilance and it does go on, then they will have to think about a preventative curtain of vaccinated animals."

A continuation of the disease over the winter would have serious implications for an already hard-hit rural economy, according to professor of rural economy Philip Lowe.

Prof Lowe, of Newcastle University's centre for the rural economy, said: "It is a worrying scenario, and it may be that firms that last the summer would suffer, because they have lost the fat that allows them to survive."

NFU North-East spokesman Rob Simpson said: "The experts reassured us that when the dry, hot weather came about, it would kill the virus much more quickly.

"We hoped by mid-summer to see the last of the disease but that doesn't seem to be a possibility at the moment. We all hoped that the weather would do it for us and it has not."

He said if the virus was not eliminated over the next six weeks, the number of cases could start to rise again in the autumn. "Given that the virus thrives in cold, wet weather, we could see continuous outbreaks throughout the winter."

He said if foot-and-mouth did become endemic it would mean permanent restrictions on exports, as well as having serious implications for animal health.

A Defra spokeswoman said: "The disease has peaked and tailed off quickly but the residual tail is a long one. It has always been expected that the tail of the disease would be with us for a while."

Meanwhile, the Government is coming under pressure to scale down plans to re-open footpaths .

There were calls yesterday for blanket closure orders to remain in force across the North York Moors and the Yorkshire Dales National Parks, as well as in the Thirsk area where a new cluster of cases has developed.

A quarter of the county's network of 9,000km of footpaths have been re-opened, but the Government wants all closure orders lifted by Friday next week.

Vets yesterday slaughtered 374 sheep at Coronation Farm, Cold Kirby, near Helmsley, North Yorkshire, on suspicion of having the disease. There were also two further cases in the Settle and Skipton areas.

Further reading:

Comment from The Northern Echo - It's time we beat this scourge .

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