SECRET contingency plans have been drawn up to deal with the slaughter of millions more animals and dispose of many of them in a re-opened North-East foot-and-mouth burial site, The Northern Echo can reveal.
Government experts have been asked to come up with new plans in the face of growing evidence that the epidemic will not be beaten this summer.
The document, which has been obtained by The Northern Echo, envisages re-opening burial sites to help dispose of up to 4.5 million lambs and ewes should this be necessary this autumn.
And in another nightmare scenario the Government has also laid down plans to slaughter 40 million animals if tests on the British sheep flock uncover BSE.
The news will horrify farmers and anti-burial campaigners who hoped the foot-and-mouth outbreak was coming to an end despite a rising number of new cases in North Yorkshire.
The Northern Echo reported last month on growing fears that foot-and-mouth could strengthen its grip on the country later this year.
With time running out the Government announced an unprecedented clampdown across a 900 square mile area of North Yorkshire this week.
Despite the bio-security measures - which will see vets riding shotgun on milk tankers and cleansing stations for mass disinfecting - the outbreak shows no sign of slowing.
Last night, DEFRA, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, confirmed three further cases in North Yorkshire, one in Thirsk and two at Whitby, bringing the total to 129.
The DEFRA document obtained by The Northern Echo paints four possible scenarios if the disease is not beaten by the autumn. The nightmare picture would be made worse by the need to slaughter healthy lambs that cannot be sold because of the export ban imposed in the wake of the outbreak.
Under Scenario One, the number of new foot-and-mouth cases would continue at the current level of three per day. The Government would have to dispose of 5,208 tonnes of animals a week. While most carcasses would be rendered, the report warns: "There will be the occasional need to resort to licensed landfill such as Cumbria and/or mass burial at Tow Law to deal with peaks in demand."
Scenario Two would see the number of cases increase to five a day - or 13,020 tonnes a week. This would force the Government to re-open DEFRA incineration plants with the balance disposed of in landfill areas and burial sites, including Tow Law.
The document adds: "Depending on demand and location, DEFRA may need to consider contracting more landfill sites or re-opening mothballed mass burial sites."
The report says this is likely to lead to "increasing public and local authority protests at the use of Tow Law, with the risk of operations being disrupted; increasing likelihood of legal action to prevent the use of Tow Law and opposition from local residents/authorities/MPs to the opening of new landfill sites/mass burial sites."
Scenario Three envisages a medium scale outbreak in East Yorkshire and Humberside - home to the country's pig industry - while the number of cases elsewhere remained at the current level of three per day. The report says: "In theory most carcasses could be rendered, with the excess being incinerated. But in practice, fluctuating numbers would mean frequent recourse to Tow Law.
"Consideration would have to be given to identifying landfill sites in East Yorkshire/Humberside for disposal of sheep and pig carcasses."
If this were to happen, DEFRA would face blockades at Tow Law, it adds.
Scenario Four is the nightmare projection of a large scale outbreak in East Yorkshire and Humberside combined with a big increase elsewhere.
In a six week period this would hit 730,000 pigs, 126,000 sheep and 65,000 cattle.
To deal with such a massive outbreak DEFRA would have to lease private incinerator plants and dispose of 20,353 tonnes per week in landfill and mass burial. The report warns: "Restarting burning on pyres might also be required."
It also adds that up to 40 million animals may have to be slaughtered over a four year period if BSE were to be discovered in sheep.
Scientists have been testing for months to see if BSE has spread from cattle to sheep. So far the results have been inconclusive.
Protestors already distraught that DEFRA has not listened to their pleas to close the mass burial site at Inkerman in Tow Law last night pledged to step up their legal campaign should the number of carcasses taken there be increased.
Campaigner Peter Lister said: "We would be horrified. They cannot manage it with the 30,000 carcasses that are there now so how would they manage 300,000?"
Stephen Hughes MEP has taken their fight to Europe and a decision is pending as to whether the EU will demand the site be closed or whether a full public inquiry will be launched.
An NFU spokesperson said that it would try all avenues to stop the cull. She said: "Slaughter is the last resort."
DEFRA indicated that the document was genuine but stressed that they were merely contingency plans. He added: "In this crisis, the only way the Government can carry out its duty is look at what the seriousness of foot-and-mouth would mean at various levels."
Read more about foot-and-mouth here.
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