The case against bin Laden

It is that very evidence which Prime Minister Tony Blair is reported to have shown, not only to Nato, but also to Opposition Leader Iain Duncan Smith and Lib Dem Charles Kennedy at their private meeting at Number 10 on Wednesday.

This led both these party leaders to declare that they, too, were now utterly convinced of bin Laden's guilt over the September 11 outrage in New York.

On the first page of the dossier is a disclaimer: "This document does not purport to provide a prosecutable case against bin Laden in a court of law. Intelligence often cannot be used evidentially, due both to the strict rules of admissability and to the need to protect the safety of sources."

In briefings with journalists during yesterday's emergency session of the Commons, the Prime Minister's spokesman was asked if the detailed evidence that was withheld were published, would that provide the basis of a legal case?

The spokesman replied that he was not a lawyer and did not know all the ins and outs of what was admissable. "But what is absolutely clear is we know who is responsible for the events of September 11 - and they should be brought to justice."

The evidence available certainly has brought swift support from Nato. It has agreed to all of America's eight specific requests for logistical and military support in its campaign against terrorism, Secretary-General George Robertson announced.

Support measures, to be taken "individually and collectively", include the provision of some of Nato's 17 Awacs early warning aircraft and the deployment, if needed, of ships from the Alliance Standing Naval Force to the eastern Mediterranean. Lord Robertson said the backing of Nato demonstrated the commitment of the European Alliance partners to support and contribute to the US-led assault against terrorism.

Tony Blair will have to tread a fine balancing act in his last-minute mission to rally the support of other countries. He will have to reveal enough to their leaders of the intelligence, that has not been revealed here to MPs and Parliament, to convince them to give him and the US their full support.

First on the list is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has already given strong backing to the West. Bases within the former Soviet territories of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, where Mr Putin still wields influence, could be used as launch pads for military strikes against Afghanistan. Details of the rest of Tony Blair's tour have not been disclosed by Downing Street.

The dossier published yesterday catalogued a long list of what Downing Street admitted was circumstantial evidence from intelligence gathered after the attacks:

l "In the run-up to September 11, bin Laden was mounting a concerted propaganda campaign amongst like-minded groups, justifying attacks on Jewish and American targets; and claiming that those who died in the course of them were carrying out God's work.

l "We have learned, subsequent to September 11, that bin Laden himself asserted shortly before September 11 that he was preparing a major attack on America.

l "In August and September, the close associates of bin Laden were being warned to return to Afghanistan from other parts of the world by September 10.

l "Some known associates of bin Laden were naming the date for action as on or around September 11.

l "We have learned that one of bin Laden's closest and most senior associates was responsible for the detailed planning of the attacks."

The document points out that bin Laden remains in charge, "and the mastermind of", the Al Quaida terrorist network, and an operation on the scale of the New York attacks "would have been approved by Osama bin Laden himself".

The evidence says it was "entirely consistent" with previous Al Quaida attacks on US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in August 1998, killing 224, and on the USS Cole in October 2000, killing 17 crew members. "No warnings were given for these attacks, as there was none on September 11."

Al Quaida's record of atrocities, the report says, is characterised by meticulous long-term planning, a desire to inflict mass casualties, suicide bombers, and multiple simultaneous attacks.

Al Quaida operatives, in evidence given in trials following the embassy bombings, had described how the group spent years preparing for an attack. "They conduct repeated surveillance, patiently gather materials, and identify and vet operatives, who have the skills to participate, and the willingness to die for their cause."

The operatives involved in the New York attacks, says the dossier, "attended flight schools, used flight simulators to study the controls of larger aircraft, and placed potential airports and routes under surveillance." It concludes: "No other organisation has both the motivation and the capability to carry out attacks like those of September 11 - only the Al Quaida network under Osama bin Laden." Chillingly, it adds that Al Quaida has the will and the resources to execute further attacks of similar scale. "Both the United States and its close allies are targets for such attacks."

The Government is in no doubt that bin Laden and Al Quaida planned and carried out the September 11 atrocities. It gives backing to Tony Blair's recent warnings of military action against Afghanistan's Taliban rulers. "The attack could not have occurred without the alliance between the Taliban and Osama bin Laden, which allowed him to operate freely in Afghanistan, promoting, planning and executing terrorist activity."

Downing Street signalled that the evidence it published was gathered, not just by British security sources, but by a wide range of intelligence agencies, including the CIA.

The spokesman said the Prime Minister was not giving any timetable for military action - "as you would expect him to" - nonetheless it was now clear it would happen "in the coming weeks."

Pakistan itself has now gone even further in its conclusions over the evidence against bin Laden. Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammed Riaz Khan said it was sufficient to indict him for the September 11 attacks.

As the evidence published by Downing Street is essentially, in legal terms, circumstantial, it will convince those who want to be convinced. But, in itself, it may not be enough to win over any who still doubt bin Laden's involvement in the worst terrorist outrage in history.