Betting on Birkdale isn't such a bad idea in the three-and-a-half-mile Singer & Friedlander National Trial at Uttoxeter today.
Not many of the 17-strong field will still be going when the winning post comes into view, but at least we know Birkdale is at home on heavy ground and has the reserves of stamina to stay every inch of the marathon trip.
In addition to Birkdale (1.45), trainer Ferdy Murphy runs Streamstown and Narrow Water, with stable jockey Adrian Maguire opting to ride Streamstown.
"I gave Adrian the choice and he's decided to ride Streamstown. He gets on well with the horse so that's fair enough but I give all three equal chances," said Ferdy.
The problem with backing either Streamstown or Narrow Water is that neither managed to complete last time out.
Birkdale on the other hand has just returned from a foray to Gowran Park in Ireland, where he finished a gallant runner-up to the Charlie Swan-trained This Is Serious.
Murphy may also be on the mark at Wetherby, where he runs Historg (1.40) in the £22,000 Towton Novices' Chase.
Although Historg fell last time out at Haydock, he didn't depart until the 17th and final fence and would most probably have finished third to the high-class duo of Ifni du Luc and Direct Access.
Historg has plenty on his plate against the likes of Frosty Canyon and Howard Johnson's Ballybough Rasher.
Having said that, the smart seven-year-old has always been held in the highest regard by the shrewdies within Ferdy's camp.
Norman Mason's assistant and stable jockey Richard Guest is going against his own homespun philosophy by sending out Red Striker (2.10) to contest the £20,000 Tote Bookmakers Chase.
"Ideally good horses want six weeks between races. But Red Striker can be a bit silly at home when he gets fresh so in a way it's better if we run him," said Guest.
Red Striker was very impressive when swooping late to collect the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock a fortnight ago.
Applying Guest's theory to the Tote Scoop6 Handicap Hurdle at Sandown, Houghton Bay (3.05) could be the one to be on.
He' been rested for a couple of months since taking third spot behind Montreal and Frogmarch in the always red-hot William Hill Handicap Hurdle over course and distance.
Houghton Bay's handler, Johnny Portman, has his stable in tip-top form and it's possible the gelding will come back better than ever following his short break.
The preceding Scilly Isles Novices' Chase often gives a strong clue as to the outcome of one of the championship events at Cheltenham and this year is likely to be no exception.
The Pipe-McCoy combination are likely to play a leading role with Bounce Back. But I prefer the prospects of Returning (3.05), who gets the vote purely on the strength of her remarkable level of consistency this term.
If anyone out there is still in any doubt about the relevance, or even popularity of "winter flat racing," then consider this: there were a staggering 107 entries for the lowly 0-60 Class F £3,000 Thomas Cunningham Handicap at Lingfield.
And the majority of the entries came from the four-year-old ranks, so it's no wonder there is a dearth of juvenile hurdlers around these days.
Upping the stakes considerably, a juicy £20,000 in total prize money is available for the mile-and-a-quarter Class C Littlewoods Bet Direct Handicap and I believe the loot will head back north courtesy of Malton raider Susan's Dowry (3.45).
Andy Turnell's mare has been transformed by the switch to the polytrack, a surface she clearly thrives on having won her last two races over course and distance.
As always there's a tit-bit or two to be had at Wolverhampton's night meeting, not least the prospect of a Mark Johnston double via Cheeney Basin (7.30) and Benny The Vice (8.30).
Cheeney Basin bounced back to form with a cosy success in a selling contest at Southwell earlier in the week, while Benny The Vice has a fairly straightforward task in the Bet Direct Maiden stakes.
Yesterday's readers will have benefited to the tune of a 12-1 winner provided they backed headline horse, Aa-Youknownothing.
It should be a similar story for Erracht (8.00), provided she steers a similarly wide course in the six furlong Fillies Handicap.
* Northern-based rider Kenny Johnson is hoping to be back in action in three to four weeks after breaking a bone in his left hand.
The 33-year-old took a nasty fall from Shining Tyne, trained by his father Robert, at the third-last fence in the Chisholm Bookmakers Novices' Chase at Newcastle on Wednesday.
He underwent an operation at the Royal Victoria Infirmary in Newcastle on Thursday and was released from hospital yesterday afternoon.
''It is very swollen and sore at the moment but thankfully it's not the main bone in the hand that is affected,'' said Johnson.
''They will take the cast off in a week or so and then we'll take it from there.'
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