Billy Elliot star Jamie Bell was as shocked as everyone else when asked to step forward to collect the best actor prize at the British Academy Film Awards last year.

Few expected the Billingham teenager to beat Hollywood heavyweights like Tom Hanks and Russell Crowe to win the award, after he'd been passed over for an Oscar nomination.

Perhaps Bell and the rest of us shouldn't have been so surprised as the Baftas, our answer to the American Academy Awards, have always been noted for their quirkiness.

The Baftas usually throw up one surprise. The previous year it happened when Spanish film-maker Pedro Almodavar was named best director, not hot favourite and Oscar winner Sam Mendes.

Moving the Baftas earlier in the awards calendar has worked, raising the event's profile and making the British ceremony more important by being held in the run-up to the Oscars.

Given past unpredictability, second-guessing the results is hazardous. But, just as the occasion demands that winners thank everyone from their mother's manicurist to the director's dog, the rules dictate you at least have a go before the ceremony on Sunday.

A Beautiful Mind, the story of schizophrenic maths genius John Nash, is likely to be a big winner come Oscar time, but won't fare quite so well with the Brits.

I'd give best film to The Lord Of The Rings or Moulin Rouge, just as the choice for best direction comes down to Peter Jackson for the Tolkien epic or Baz Luhrman for the French nightclub-set musical. That might not stop veteran film-maker Robert Altman taking the David Lean Award for direction for the multi-layered Gosford Park, his first British movie.

Crowe deserves best actor for A Beautiful Mind but the chances of two British actors, Jim Broadbent from Iris and Tom Wilkinson from In The Bedroom, won't be overlooked.

Fellow Brit Ian McKellen, for The Lord Of The Rings, and Kevin Spacey, for The Shipping News, needn't prepare acceptance speeches.

Neither should Sissy Spacek. She's already won several best actress prizes for In The Bedroom but won't collect a Bafta to put alongside them.

Judi Dench is a favourite for Iris but my vote goes to Nicole Kidman, nominated for The Others rather than Moulin Rouge. The Australian actress is on a winning roll as far as awards go.

French actress Audrey Tatou is charming in Amelie and, if the prize was for putting on weight and an English accent, then Renee Zellwegger would be triumphant for Bridget Jones's Diary.

Both will come away empty-handed on Sunday.

Bridget may be luckier in the British film of the year section although my money is on Gosford Park. Box office hit Harry Potter And The Philosopher's Stone looks set to be a loser in that and the other categories in which it's nominated.

The odds favour the Brits for best supporting actress as they fill four of the five nominations.

Voters finding it impossible to choose between Judi Dench, Helen Mirren, Maggie Smith and Kate Winslet may simply opt for sole American contender Jennifer Connelly, for A Beautiful Mind.

The best supporting actor category has nominations for Iris co-stars Jim Broadbent and Hugh Bonneville. They play the older and the younger John Bayley, although Broadbent is nominated for Moulin Rouge.

It would be nice to see Bonneville win as he's been shamefully overlooked in the Oscars. Dench, Broadbent and Winslett (as the young Iris) have been nominated but not Bonneville, who's just as good. Perhaps that old Bafta quirk will see him triumph on Sunday