If England win against Brazil tomorrow, there could be far-reaching effects on the economy. Christen Pears looks at how the World Cup may score for business.

It's not only England fans who are celebrating the team's success in the World Cup - retail sales have also had a boost. Supermarkets, off-licences and electrical shops have all benefited, while many pubs have taken advantage by opening early for the games and even sushi sales have gone up by 25 per cent.

But football fever can also have a negative effect, due to the large number of fans taking time off work to watch matches. There was mass absenteeism when England played Argentina and there have been predictions that productivity could drop by £1bn if England reach the semi-finals.

Economist Richard Greenwood, of the Centre of Economic and Business Research which came up with the figure, believes the World Cup effect - a loss of productivity and an increase in consumption - is a drain on the economy.

"We have always taken the line that the loss of productivity will outweigh additional consumption. Even if we win, it is always going to be a negative effect," he explains.

But David Chapman, North-East regional chairman of the CBI, disagrees. "Tomorrow's match isn't really like the Argentina match because it's early morning rather than at lunch time. I expect a few people will come into work late, which may cause temporary problems, but I suspect that if we go through, there will be a positive effect.

"I think of it in the same terms as local football. When a team wins, there's a definite feel-good factor and productivity goes up. I think any downturn we see tomorrow morning will be more than made up by the resultant euphoria if we win."

He points out that, even if England make it through to the final, there will only be one more weekday match and that can have only a limited impact on the economy.

"If that's on a lunch time, there may be some difficulties, but it's not as if it is totally unexpected. I think a lot of companies will have made some sort of special provision to allow their staff to watch the match without it affecting productivity."

Northumbrian Water, mobile phone company Orange and Nissan are among North-East companies which have been allowing their staff to watch the football at work.

Workers at Nissan's Sunderland plant have followed England's progress on specially-installed big screens, and the company has planned meticulously to ensure production remains on schedule.

Dawn Waugh, Nissan spokeswoman, says: "Staff approached the company council and asked what arrangements would be made for the World Cup. We realised it would impossible to have more than two or three people off work in any area at any one time so, to be fair to everyone, we decided to stop the production line.

'Over the course of the year, we produce around 300,000 vehicles and a couple of hours off won't make any difference in the long run. We can tune a production line to go faster or slower, so we can make up lost production very easily."

The day shift is due to start work at 7am tomorrow but will work for just 20 minutes before the production line is stopped for two hours to allow staff to watch the game. Some of the time will be taken as a break and workers will have to pay back an hour, but Nissan is allowing them 45 minutes free time.

It's a generous gesture and seems to have paid off. Absenteeism during the Argentina match was no higher than at any other time.

"Rather than be heavy handed and try to stop people watching the football, we have listened to what the workforce wants and we have responded to that. It's good for morale and, if England go through tomorrow, we will look at making arrangements for the next match."

But while Nissan and other forward-thinking companies will feel few effects, there are some that will experience high levels of absenteeism and business will suffer as a result.

On the positive side, however, the retail sector will receive an enormous boost. Sales surged by £750m during and in the immediate aftermath of the Argentina game, according to CEBR estimates. It estimates another £500m or so of sales uplift as a result of the Denmark match.

For many industries, the World Cup is worth a lot of money. Richard Greenwood says: "Gambling has been quite a big winner, particularly on the Internet, with a £50m increase. Also, sales in food and drink and widescreen televisions have increased."

Among the main retail winners have been supermarkets, off-licences and electrical shops. Over the past weekend, Tesco reported a 20 per cent increase in lager, cider and alcopops, a 20 per cent increase in champagne and sparkling wine and a 60 per cent increase in condom sales.

The store also shifted an extra 1.2 million gallons of beer over the weekend of the England-Sweden match and more than three million take-away pizzas. In fact, alcohol and food have been in such demand they have a team working 24 hours a day on 'Operation Owen' to ensure that stocks of beer, pizza and barbecue food are sufficient.

However, many people prefer to drink in the pub and trade could increase by £100m, even though the matches are not in the evening. Pubs across the region have been opening early, attracting bumper crowds of fans.

Breakfast matches are causing a boost in other sectors of the market. Tesco reported an increase in croissant sales for the Denmark match and an increase of 15-25 per cent in breakfast bars. They expect another boost in breakfast foods when England play Brazil.

Those who like a drink seem to have been stocking up for the morning after - sales of Alka-Seltzer, and herbal remedies at Tesco increased fourfold this weekend.

Predictably enough, electrical retailers are also reporting a leap in demand. Comet estimates that sales of big-screen televisions are up 100 per cent since England beat Argentina, and reports a 20 per cent increase in television engineering call-outs as viewers scramble to get sets ready for the big matches.

Sales of flags have gone through the roof. Sainsbury's have sold 100,000 large England flags and 5,000 car flags, while Flying Colours, based in Knaresborough, North Yorkshire, has had to take on extra staff to cope with demand.

Perhaps less predictably, sales of mints, mouthwashes and breath fresheners boomed as Britain's employees seek to hide drinking from the boss. Again, sales of breath fresheners are expected to go up again when employees sneak in from an extended breakfast tomorrow.

No one can predict what will happen when England line up against Brazil, but Greenwood is certain most people would still sacrifice a little economic loss to see David Beckham holding the golden trophy. He says: "Most people are patriotic football fans and I don't think they would want England to go out of the World Cup on the basis of lost productivity."