THE most important thing to remember about history is that it repeats itself so, with the benefit of hindsight, we can learn from the triumphs and disasters of others.

We are currently teetering on the brink of war. Tony Blair has produced the evidence he claims as proof that Saddam Hussein is planning to build a nuclear bomb, the language of George Bush is uncompromising and Iraq continues to frustrate the United Nations inspectors.

The atmosphere of nervous brinkmanship is so reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis and the way the threat to America was handled by President Kennedy. Perhaps if we look back through the pages of history we can consider what might have happened if Kennedy had not been President at the time? What if diplomacy failed and a war erupted or what if missiles had been deployed just a few miles from the Florida coast?

But we can go further back in history to the 1930s and the rise of Adolf Hitler. Appeasement was the order of the day, rather than swift military action, and we can reflect now on how many millions of lives were lost as a result.

Now let us jump to more modern times and consider what might have happened if Kennedy had lived - would war in Vietnam have been averted or perhaps have ended more swiftly?

As the Gulf War neared an end, it is said that Margaret Thatcher was furious that troops were not ordered to drive on and into Baghdad to topple Hussein, calculating correctly that he would rise again.

It seems to me that the shock and grief felt by the Western world over the September 11 atrocity is on the wane. We have slipped back into our comfortable lives where sitting back and doing nothing is far easier than confrontation.

Perhaps we need to visualise what a nuclear strike could do. Multiply the death toll of September 11 by 100 or even 1,000.

It is right that MPs speak their minds on the subject and no doubt those who so vehemently oppose a strike on Iraq speak from conscience. But perhaps they should remember that in Iraq such freedom of speech has been wiped out. Iraq - rather like al Qaida - cannot be judged by the standards of civilised countries. That would be like assuming the morals and psychology of a serial killer are the same as those of an ordinary person.

Tony Blair has a massive majority and is still well ahead in all polls. He also has the support of the Conservatives in his alliance with America, so I do not believe his views on Iraq are tainted by a need to gain popularity at home.

Our system of electing a government is not perfect, but it is vastly superior to many. Mr Blair was elected to lead, he will take advice, heed wise counsel and no doubt reflect on the lessons of history. But, in the end, he must decide what is best for Britain and the free world and act decisively. We as a nation should support him.

Published: 27/09/2002