ALREADY six points behind Arsenal after nine games, Manchester United's title challenge should be just about over once Roy Keane is fit and able to play again.
A five-match ban may not sound too severe - particularly as one of those fixtures is in the Worthington Cup.
But one should ignore United's impressive recent form against the likes of Everton and Charlton Athletic.
Against the big guns - such as Newcastle United and Liverpool - Sir Alex Ferguson's team are a rudderless ship without the guiding hand of Keane at the helm.
Add to those games a tasty trip to Manchester City, and Sir Alex Ferguson can scarcely have wished for a worse set of fixtures to tackle without his talisman.
Keane will be back for United's first meeting of the season with Arsenal, but by then the damage to their Premiership hopes should be done.
Keane against Steven Gerrard is a battle the United man would expect to win; instead, the Liverpool midfielder is already relishing his encounter with Juan Sebastian Veron.
Remember, too, that the United captain will be severely lacking match fitness when Patrick Vieria and Co. come to Manchester on December 7.
United can appeal, of course, but will such action reap the desired rewards?
Perhaps they will think that the risk of his ban being increased is worth the risk of appealing, knowing that a one-match reduction would make him eligible for the Liverpool game.
But the Football Association are only too aware that they will face the wrath of the whole game - including Arsenal and Liverpool, the other two major powerbrokers - should they bow to United's demand.
So, after missing out on the league last season, surely the Premiership title will not be returning to Old Trafford this season.
Which means that as well as the Champions League, United's best chance of winning a trophy this campaign rests with the FA Cup - a competition he professes to "hate" in his book.
Surely even Keane, sore hip or no sore hip, will smile at that irony this morning.
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