Pig Plan Monitor, by David Gloag, AgroSoft pig business management consultant

THE many challenges faced by the British Pig Industry in recent years have led to a 30pc reduction in the size of the national breeding herd.

The latest census shows only 554,000 productive sows in the UK, and there is every sign that this figure could fall further.

There are a number of reasons behind the decline, including outbreaks of disease and the unilateral adoption by Britain of strict welfare regulations, forcing out many producers.

These, with the impact of the strong pound, the single European market and the influence of the World Trade Organisation, have broadened the global pigmeat market. Pigmeat is traded more freely between countries, and traders seek to exploit any competitive advantage they can from the cuts they have to sell.

British consumers are, perhaps, more refined in their choice of cuts, preferring pork loin chops and pork steaks to shoulder and belly, so the less valuable parts of the carcase either have to be exported or used in manufacturing.

The creation of a global pigmeat market has resulted in pig prices in EU countries moving closer together, which, in turn, has lead to the weakening of the pig cycle. Local retail prices now reflect European, and even global, supply and demand.

From mid-August to the end of September, more than 200,000 pigs a week were slaughtered in the UK, an increase of 5pc in numbers slaughtered over the latest five month period. That was against the forecast trend of a gradual reduction in the number of pigs coming forward each week.

One reason put forward for this increase was that some producers had succeeded in reducing the incidence of PMWS in their herds. It is hoped this will continue during the winter.

UK pork imports in the first seven months of this year totalled 139,800 tonnes, 43pc of which came from Denmark; 158,000 tonnes of bacon was imported, 54pc from Holland and 40pc from Denmark. We also imported 220,00 tonnes of processed ham, again mainly from Denmark. I understand that country is 500pc self-sufficient in pigmeat, so Danish producers are extremely dependent upon the export market.

In the same seven-month period, 51,700 tonnes of pork were exported from the UK, half of it to Germany, where trade is now starting to recover.

Exports outside the EU are still lower than normal, mainly owing to the absence in trade with Russia and South Korea.

Our industry has to accept the influence of the EU market and the World Trade Organisation. What we find hard to swallow is the UK Government's casual attitude towards illegally imported meat products. How foot-and-mouth and swine fever entered our island would appear to be still a mystery.

PMWS remains an on-going problem in many herds.

In contrast, Italy recently banned imports of Dutch pigmeat owing to the discovery of a banned steroid being used in Dutch animal feed. There is little sign of the UK Government taking similar action.

The thirteenth consignment in recent months of German beef containing specified risk material was found at a south coast port recently. How many more, before action is taken?

When our political representative refuses to eat British beef on camera in France, we do wonder if there is anybody looking out for our interests, and whom we can trust to help our industry to survive.

It is being suggested that the national pig breeding herd could fall well below 500,000 sows by the end of 2003, so we are likely to become even more dependent on imports. Patience is a virtue, but our industry is rapidly running out of patience.

What impact will the welfare regulations, already implemented in the UK, have on pig producers in other EU countries and the rest of the world in the next few years? More emphasis must be placed on these requirements, not only to give our industry a chance to survive, but also so that UK consumers are not given misleading information about the food they eat