Is this Britain's point of no return

Nick Morrison looks at the build-up to war.

IT has all the signs of being the pivotal moment on the road to war. While the dispatch of the naval task force could be seen as a show of force, a warning to Saddam that the West means business, after yesterday's announcement there can be no doubt that war is looming.

By committing almost as many troops as were involved in the Gulf War in 1991, the Government has dramatically upped the stakes and made war all but inevitable.

The 26,000 Army contingent announced yesterday by Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon, will join 1,000 from the Royal Air Force and 5,250 from the Navy. The total so far announced is about 32,500 personnel, compared with 35,000 in the Gulf War, when the Americans provided 360,000 servicemen and women.

British involvement in any coalition offensive is likely to take several forms, from vital support over the skies to rapid control of the infrastructure, experts say. Colonel Christopher Langton, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, believes British troops will play key roles in four areas: air strikes and light, armoured and Special forces.

He says the concept of the conflict may be similar to the Desert Storm operation of 1991, but adds: "You also have to look at the reality and the reality is there have been changes in the British armed forces since 1991.

"There are considerably less people available and those people are doing more such as fire-fighting and operations in the Balkans and Afghanistan. Planners have to look at producing a force capable of producing what is required."

The first and most immediate line of attack is expected to come from the air and the RAF already has around 1,000 personnel, with aircraft, in the region. They have long been in the vicinity policing the Iraqi no-fly zone from bases dotted around the Gulf.

Col Langton, editor of The Military Balance, an internationally-renowned record of the world's armed forces, has forecast aircraft will be the first into action. "They are already in place and it is something that could be built on quickly, within days," he says.

Other troops already in the Gulf region at present include the 250-strong crew of HMS Cardiff, complete with Marines and a Lynx combat helicopter, which has been policing the UN sanctions on Iraqi imports and exports. Type 22 frigate HMS Cumberland and a submarine are much further south in the Indian Ocean, taking part in Operation Enduring Freedom, the US-led offensive on global terrorism, but could be called upon.

The Naval Task Group 03, Britain's biggest maritime deployment since the Falkland's conflict, is also on the way. Headed by the aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal and the helicopter carrier HMS Ocean, the taskforce will put 5,000 Navy personnel, including 3,000 Royal Marine commandos and hundreds of reservists, into the theatre of operations. The Ark Royal has been equipped to carry initially helicopters rather than jets.

The commander of UK Maritime Forces, Rear Admiral David Snelson, has already said the concentration of helicopters is designed to maximise the flexibility of the taskforce and quick deployment of Marines if an amphibious offensive is necessary. Lieutenant Colonel Ben Curry, headquarters spokesman for the Royal Marines, previously spoke of being able to be ''on the enemy's doorstep'' within hours.

There is little doubt the special forces, such as the SAS, will be in action and may well be already operating behind enemy lines. They are another aspect of the British fighting force that can be deployed with huge effect and, more importantly, very quickly.

Professor Lawrence Freedman, professor of war studies at King's College, London, says: "We will be told very little about their activities but it is possible they are already there and will be a key part in the planning."

The bulk of the British offensive, experts say, will come from the light forces and armoured divisions. Col Langton says: "This is something different from Desert Storm and there could be objectives that need to be taken quickly such as bridges and oil wells."

The military expert believes the oil wells could be among the top items on the list for the early stages of the war. "There is an economic issue to this war. Saddam has already said he is prepared to blow up his oil wells," he says. "Planners will see taking the oil wells as a priority as it would be very difficult to rebuild the country quickly afterwards without them."

It is tasks such as that and other key infrastructure where the light forces are likely to be used. They can be deployed quickly and effectively and many believe paras from the 16 Air Assault and the Royal Marine Commandos will be action very quickly.

But Col Langton warns that the issue with light force deployment is how quickly support can be provided, depending on how deep they go into Iraq. He predicts they would need back-up within 72 hours of ''going in'' unless they can set up their own base with secure lines of communication.

For the armoured forces, members of the 7th Brigade of the 1st (UK) Armoured Division - the famous Desert Rats - have been given their orders to move out. Between them, they are a highly potent force of Challenger 2 tanks, artillery firepower, infantry, attack and scout helicopters and anti-aircraft missile systems.

Prior to Desert Storm, the Desert Rats were among the first British troops to be deployed to the Gulf as part of the build-up. By September 1990, Britain had announced it was sending 6,000 men and 120 tanks to the Gulf, along with extra Tornado fighters. At the height of the Gulf War, the 1st Armoured Division accounted for around 28,000 troops.

This time around, the bloodiest and most difficult aspect of the war would, without question, occur in the streets of Iraq's towns and cities. Saddam has already boasted he would win any war in Baghdad and vowed to repel any invaders.

Professor Freedman says: "There is an assumption that the forces will not have to go too far down the road of the campaign before the Iraqis begin to cave in. But if not, they would go to the cities and we would be looking at sieges which will not be easy."

Col Langton adds: "If they take part in urban operations it is likely to be the bloodiest, messiest and most difficult aspect of the war. The Iraqis have already said that is where they will stand and fight and it is where the technological advantage of the coalition forces would be reduced significantly, as they were in Afghanistan."

Another concern among specialists focuses on the handling of prisoners of war during the conflict. In 1991 the First Battalion of the Coldstream Guards was among a number of troops sent to the Gulf to set up and police POW camps.

But Col Langton says there appears to have been no talk of how to deal with PoWs this time around. "In 1991 we were liberating Kuwait and civilians were not a major issue," he says.

"This time it is an invasion of Iraq and the military will be in and among the civilian population. There are going to be humanitarian issues."

The last Gulf War saw British forces from all disciplines, the Army, Royal Navy and RAF, and saw a gradual build up in advance over three months. At the height there was a mass of tanks, artillery, combat planes and warships.

There was also around 5,000 medical staff including 48 surgical teams, doctors, nurses, stretcher-bearers and other medics. Around 1,850 beds were provided in five field hospitals and aboard the Royal Fleet Auxiliary Argus, which was transformed into a floating hospital.

On the water there were 19 ships, including two destroyers, two frigates, five minehunters and ten support ships, including four landing ships for coastal as saults.

The Royal Navy accounted for 3,000, including Royal Marines, and the RAF provided 4,000 troops across five and a half squadrons and 70 warplanes.

In all, there were around 605,000 allied troops compared with up to 600,000 Iraqi troops.

Forty-seven British servicemen died in the conflict. This time, with an invasion of Iraq and Saddam's very survival at stake, the casualties are likely to be much higher.