NEWCASTLE Falcons are eight matches from the unthinkable. Or even less if they keep on losing.
Just as the dream of having one of the best teams in Europe to grace facilities of a similar standard was coming tantalisingly within sight everything has gone wrong on the pitch.
Seven successive Premiership defeats - three of them at home to fellow strugglers - have left the Falcons six points adrift at the foot of the table.
Barring either a dramatic improvement in form, or expansion of the Premiership from 12 to 14 teams, they will be back in division one six years after escaping it.
This would raise the possibility of Jonny Wilkinson leaving, which would cruelly rob the club of his enormous talent and the most marketable commodity in English rugby.
The Falcons are justifiably proud of their community programme, but without having Wilkinson to offer as the perfect role model for aspiring young players it will become all the harder to sell the game to a North-East public still hooked on football.
Crowds had steadily increased to the point where they regularly topped 5,000. But the trend has gone into untimely reverse just as the £12m improvements to a stadium which will hold 10,000 have taken impressive shape.
The new West stand will be officially opened next Sunday when Harlequins are the visitors for the first of those eight matches which will decide the Falcons' fate.They also have Northampton, Leicester and Saracens at home and the first requirement will be to turn the new-look Kingston Park back into a fortress.
They have not travelled well for several seasons, but at least the first of the four away games is just down the road at Leeds on Friday week, and as the Tykes have also stuttered recently this is another game in which Newcastle must target a victory.
The fear is that by the time the five new arrivals from overseas have bedded in it will be too late.
This difficulty has been highlighted by hooker James Christian, a New Zealander with an impressive pedigree.
He struggled to make an impact in his first two outings, then suffered a nasty neck injury after five minutes of the last Premiership match at Sale.
With no game this weekend following the exit at the first hurdle from the Powergen Cup, Christian could be fit to challenge for his place against Quins, along with fellow Kiwis Mark Mayerhofler and Craig Newby, plus former Natal forwards Mark Andrews and Warren Britz.
Christian and Mayerhofler have EC passports, but the others are classed as overseas players and only two can play in any one match.
Andrews, South Africa's most-capped lock with 77 appearances, is a certainty, even though he says he might initially be good for only 60 minutes following a three-month break from the game.
He left his farm 200 miles from East London this week to return to Tyneside, having been very impressed when he cast his eye over the club before accepting an 18-month contract.
"The whole place just seemed right," he said. "I had other offers, but it's no good going to a place you hate.
"I just liked what I saw and the whole project is very exciting."
Andrews also sold the place to Britz, a tough, 6ft 3in open side who was voted Natal Sharks' top player last year but fell out with national coach Rudi Straeuli and decided to look overseas.
Newcastle hope Andrews will provide the sort of forward leadership they enjoyed under Pat Lam, who was similarly enthused by the set-up and the dream which Director of Rugby Rob Andrew shares with the club owner, David Thompson. Thompson will have been reminded many times since taking over from Sir John Hall that the only way to make a small fortune out of any but the best supported rugby clubs is to start with a large fortune.
It's a safe bet that he has had to dip into his own pocket to fund the new arrivals, and it can be seen either as the continuing benevolence of a true enthusiast or a last desperate throw of the dice by someone determined not to let the dream wither and die.
The dream is surely too far advanced for that to happen. The stadium is superb, and the academy has established a production line of talented youngsters.
The trouble is that the first batch of those youngsters are not quite as advanced as Rob Andrew had hoped.
He thought that after a couple of years of being nurtured under the wing of players like Lam, Inga Tuigamala, Gary Armstrong, Doddie Weir and George Graham they could exist without them. It may be that none of those five could have been persuaded to stay, with the Scottish trio keen to end their careers with one final challenge in establishing the new Borders team.
They all gave terrific service to the Falcons and enjoyed great success in winning the Premiership at the first attempt, followed by the cup two years ago.
But the time seemed right for them to go, with Wilkinson ready to assume the captaincy and there were still three Scottish international forwards on board in Stuart Grimes, Steve Brotherstone and Andrew Mower.
Jamie Noon, David Walder and Michael Stephenson had played for England, Hugh Vyvyan was established as a top-class performer, and they were backed by those on the brink of stardom such as Hall Charlton, Tom May, Jon Dunbar, Epi Taione and Micky Ward.
While outsiders reckoned the squad lacked experience, Andrew was confident that his proteges were ready to stand on their own feet, but as is often the case it took only a couple of injuries to expose the squad's fragility.
Walder broke a leg in a pre-season match, robbing the side of a skilful and versatile player who could make things happen from full back as well as providing essential fly half and goal-kicking cover for Wilkinson.
Mower was also ruled out early on, then hooker Brotherstone was badly injured, while Taione, whose explosive power was a key component, kept losing the ball.
Things were not going as hoped, but three of the first four home games were won and there was no real cause for alarm until the Falcons lost at home to London Irish, who were then bottom of the table.
It proved to be Wilkinson's last appearance for the club for ten weeks and the cracks which had been papered over before were now fully exposed.
It was not all gloom as the forwards, particularly ex-Wharfedale prop Ian Peel, were making good progress under the coaching of former Australia prop Andrew Blades, who was signed last summer.
But without either Wilkinson or Walder the backs, of whom such great things had been predicted two years earlier, were simply not functioning.
Someone had to carry the can and it turned out to be head coach Steve Bates, who two weeks ago was handed the alternative role of assessing opponents.
It is not a position he is likely to be happy with, and his long-term future with the club must be in doubt seven years after being brought to the club by Andrew, his half back partner at Wasps. Andrew, meanwhile, probably has a job for life, if he wants it.
He has brought the club a long way and his standing in the game remains undiminished.
That is one very large reason why the rest of the Premiership are likely to rally round and ensure that Newcastle are not sacrificed.
The game needs a North-East centre of excellence and that is what Kingston Park has become.
There has been a hiccup on the playing side, but if it's too late to prevent relegation there will surely be a revamp to ensure a smooth return to the top flight for the Falcons next season.
* Newcastle's Premiership match at Wasps has been brought forward to March 1, the date of the Powergen Cup semi-finals.
It was scheduled for April 27, when Wasps will be playing Pontypridd in the Parker Pen Challenge Cup semi-finals.
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