AS expected, the United Nations inspection team in Iraq has so far failed to find Saddam Hussein holding a "smoking gun".

Indeed, it is by no means certain that hard-and-fast evidence will ever be uncovered that he has weapons of mass destruction at his disposal.

It is clear from yesterday's report by Hans Blix that the charges against Saddam have been changed.

No longer is he accused of having nuclear, chemical or biological weapons, although deeply-held suspicions remain.

He now faces the lesser charge of inhibiting the weapons inspectors going about their work.

The contention of the United States and Britain is that such an offence, if proven, is punishable by invasion.

The task facing President Bush and Tony Blair is convincing the rest of the international community that such a harsh sentence is justified.

The President will begin the difficult task of gathering support with his State of the Union address tonight.

And there can be no doubt that the diplomatic offensive as well as the threatened military offensive will be on the agenda when President Bush meets Mr Blair at Camp David on Friday.

The welcome sign is that both men appear to be willing to listen to world opinion, by tacitly ruling out any unilateral military action before the UN inspectors report back on February 14.

There is, however, little chance that the patience of US President or the British Prime Minister will last much past Valentine's Day.

As the turmoil on the stock markets indicated yesterday, the crisis can not be allowed to carry on for much longer. A resolution is urgently required.

What remains to be seen is whether the resolution will be peaceful or violent.

The odds still seem to be on a military solution led by the United States and Britain, with or without backing from the UN.

A peaceful solution will require concessions and full co-operation from Iraq. Saddam Hussein's past record suggests he is not inclined to climb down.