WHILST Julius Caesar was warned to beware the Ides of March, it is the long hot days of August that Tony Blair will be wary of.

The Prime Minister, who is increasingly accused of being empirical, has seen his own Praetorian Guard badly depleted in recent months with Mandelson, Milburn, Byers and now, apparently, Campbell falling on their own swords.

Of course in Shakespeare it was the noblest of Romans, Brutus, who delivered the fatal blow. But there is nothing noble about the figure leading the conspiracy against Mr Blair - the former cabinet minister Clare Short.

While Mr Blair is enjoying a well earned summer holiday at Cliff Richard's island home, Ms Short appears to be plotting his downfall.

Ms Short claims that spin will be the death of Tony Blair and, if nothing is done, the Government as well. In doing so, she is using the tactics she claims to loathe so much, spinning her views to ensure maximum coverage and a front page picture in The Independent.

Her opportunism even stretches to blaming the Government for the death of Dr David Kelly - so much for giving the Hutton inquiry space to do its work.

Ms Short is clearly positioning herself to be the running partner of anyone who successfully challenges Mr Blair for the leadership of the Labour Party and the keys to number 10.

Realistic enough to know she'll never get the top job, Ms Short nonetheless carries the support of a significant number of Labour MPs and seems to be wielding this block vote like a mercenary armed with a machine gun.

She has positioned herself alongside Gordon Brown but also alongside potential dark horse Robin Cook. In addition, she leaves open the door of supporting a Blairite candidate such as Alan Milburn.

The tactics now must be to either cause so much hassle for Mr Blair he throws in the towel or cause so much dissent that the Prime Minister is forced to standing in a leadership election with a "back me or sack me" ultimatum at the party conference this autumn.

You will probably have gathered by now that I am no fan of Clare Short. I regard her us a woman without substance, disloyal and interested only in looking after number one.

So blinded is Ms Short by the whiff of power, I wonder if she realises the irony of the fact that she now stands shoulder to shoulder with the Conservative-supporting Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph in her calls for Mr Blair to go.

In all of these posturings there seems only one winner, the only senior figure within the Labour Party who seems to have kept well away from the David Kelly affair.

That is Gordon Brown, who remains a detached observer as many around him seem to run about like headless chickens.

A line in the newspapers this week tells us that Mr Brown will forego his usual holiday in Cape Cod this year and remain at home with his pregnant wife.

I've no reason to doubt this version of events - but it certainly keeps him right on the plot as the Ides of August are played out.

Published: 01/08/2003